Forecast Calibration Ledger: agent self-forecasts, resolved and scored

com.textforagentsPublished by textforagents.comOfficial publisherv1.0.0Updated Oct 27, 2026

Signed agent self-forecasts, resolved and scored per cohort, with a self-killing trust weight.

The publisher's own server: Agent NOTAMs: hazard bulletins for agents

VerifiedStreamable HTTPWeb executableData & Analytics AI & ML

Server details

Identifier: com.textforagents/forecast-calibration-ledger
Transport: Streamable HTTP
Runtime: Web executable
Trust: Verified
Published: Oct 23, 2026

Security note

MCP servers receive tool arguments from a conversation and may perform external actions. Review what a server can do before you enable it, and give it only the access it needs.

The registry verified that this server's namespace belongs to textforagents.com, which also runs its endpoint. That identifies the publisher; it does not make the server's tools safe.

SourceWeft's checks cover whether the listing is complete and the endpoint answered; they do not review the server's code or what its tools do.

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Overview

AI-generated overview

Lets an assistant record signed self-forecasts tied to a run, resolve them against actual outcomes, and query calibration scores and a trust weight.

What you can do: Record a signed forecast bound to a run ID, with probability, cost and duration estimates
Resolve a forecast against its run record, supplying success, actual cost and actual duration
Query calibration metrics for a forecaster and cohort: Brier score, skill versus climatology, bins, cost and duration error
Read the trust weight or kill state for a forecaster and cohort
When to use it: Useful when you want an agent's predictions about its own runs logged and later scored, for example to compare forecasters within a cohort or to gate an agent on measured calibration rather than self-reported confidence.
Requirements: A remote endpoint at textforagents.com over streamable HTTP. An api_token obtained from a registration endpoint is required by every tool, along with forecaster, cohort and run_id values. No environment variables or headers are declared.

Before you install

Resolving a forecast is billed at $0.01 per forecast and calibration queries at $0.005, with one free 100-forecast batch per operator; an optional x_payment value is accepted. The api_token is a credential and should be kept private. Forecasts and run outcomes are sent to a third-party service.

Installation

In SourceWeft

Open Forecast Calibration Ledger: agent self-forecasts, resolved and scored in the dashboard and add it to a workspace.
Enable the server for the chats that should use its tools.

Web executable via Streamable HTTP. Remote servers run from the web runtime once configured in a workspace.

Use with an agent

Paste this prompt into Claude Code, Codex, Cursor or another agent — or into SourceWeft chat. The agent reads this server's install guide, shows you its publisher, endpoint and sign-in, and adds it to your client once you agree. Keys never go into a command.

Read https://sourceweft.com/mcp/com.textforagents%2Fforecast-calibration-ledger/install.md and connect the MCP server it describes to my client. Before changing any config, show me its publisher, endpoint and sign-in method and wait for my OK. Never put an API key in a command or in a file I would commit; ask me where it should come from.

Read the install guide the agent follows

Other MCP clients

Add this to your client's mcpServers config.

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "forecast-calibration-ledger-agent-self-f": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://textforagents.com/products/forecast-calibration-ledger/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Tools

fcl_forecast

Record a signed forecast bound to run_id. Requires api_token (from POST /register), forecaster, cohort, run_id, p, cost_est, duration_est.

Parametersprequiredcohortrequiredrun_idrequiredcost_estrequiredapi_tokenrequiredforecasterrequiredduration_estrequired

fcl_resolve

Resolve a forecast against its run record ($0.01/forecast; one free 100-forecast batch per operator, ever; fleet plan includes 10,000). Requires api_token, run_id, success, cost_actual, duration_actual, run_record_source; optional x_payment.

Parametersrun_idrequiredsuccessrequiredapi_tokenrequiredx_paymentcost_actualrequiredduration_actualrequiredrun_record_sourcerequired

fcl_calibration

Calibration query: Brier, skill vs climatology +/- SEM, bins, cost/duration error, trust weight ($0.005/query; included with fleet plan). Requires api_token, forecaster, cohort; optional x_payment.

Parameterscohortrequiredapi_tokenrequiredx_paymentforecasterrequired

fcl_weight

Trust weight / kill state for your forecaster+cohort (free). Requires api_token, forecaster, cohort.

Parameterscohortrequiredapi_tokenrequiredforecasterrequired

Version history

v1.0.0LatestOct 23, 2026

Score

83% of the applicable checks met

How complete this listing is, computed from the registry entry, the endpoint and public sources. Not a rating of the server and not a statement that it is safe or working today: reachability is a dated check, and no installs or reviews go into the score.

Reached in the last 30 daysRequired25 pts
Auth declaredRequired10 pts
Tools listedRequired15 pts
DescriptionRequired15 pts
Logo10 pts
Documentation15 pts
Declare a GitHub repository with a README, or serve resource_documentation in the OAuth protected-resource metadata.
LicenseNot applicable
A hosted service is used under its provider's terms, so no license is expected here. This check is left out of the percentage.