Sardine: Kalshi crypto settlement history

info.sardinePublished by sardine.infoOfficial publisherv0.1.1Updated Oct 26, 2026

How often Kalshi BTC/ETH/XRP contracts settled YES, counted not forecast, with a public record

VerifiedStreamable HTTPWeb executableFinanceData & Analytics

Overview

AI-generated overview

Sardine serves historical settlement frequencies for Kalshi crypto up/down contracts, with live boards, rate tables, track records and rule backtests.

What you can do
  • List covered Kalshi series and whether each is currently served, with calibration gaps
  • Get the historical settlement rate for one contract from strike, time left and side, optionally with Kalshi's fee and all-in price
  • View the live board of open contracts with Kalshi's price beside Sardine's historical count
  • Read the full rate table for a series, bucketed by distance from strike and time left
  • Check Sardine's own track record against actual settlements
  • List downloadable CSV history files and backtest a trading rule on recorded per-second quotes
When to use it
Useful when you want to reason about Kalshi 15-minute and hourly crypto up/down contracts using counted historical frequencies rather than forecasts, or to check how accurate such numbers have been and how a rule would have performed after fees.
Requirements
Works as a remote endpoint or as a local PyPI package over stdio. No authentication is declared; an optional free API key in SARDINE_API_KEY raises rate limits. Network access to the service is needed.
Before you install
The numbers are historical frequencies, not predictions or trading advice, and the server asks that they be presented with sample size. Backtests replay recorded quotes and do not guarantee future results. The optional API key is a secret and should be supplied via SARDINE_API_KEY. Datasets require crediting Sardine when used.

Installation

In SourceWeft

  1. Open Sardine: Kalshi crypto settlement history in the dashboard and add it to a workspace.
  2. Enable the server for the chats that should use its tools.

Web executable via Streamable HTTP. Remote servers run from the web runtime once configured in a workspace.

Use with an agent

Paste this prompt into Claude Code, Codex, Cursor or another agent — or into SourceWeft chat. The agent reads this server's install guide, shows you its publisher, endpoint and sign-in, and adds it to your client once you agree. Keys never go into a command.

Read https://sourceweft.com/mcp/info.sardine%2Fsardine/install.md and connect the MCP server it describes to my client. Before changing any config, show me its publisher, endpoint and sign-in method and wait for my OK. Never put an API key in a command or in a file I would commit; ask me where it should come from.

Read the install guide the agent follows

Other MCP clients

Add this to your client's mcpServers config.

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sardine-kalshi-crypto-settlement-history": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://sardine.info/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Tools

7

list_markets

List the Kalshi series Sardine covers, and whether each is currently served. Each entry gives the Sardine key (e.g. "BTC-15M"), the Kalshi series ticker, the window length, and the latest calibration check: the largest gap, in probability points, between what Sardine published and what then settled.

Takes no parameters.

get_settlement_rate

How often has a contract like this one settled in favour of `side`? Uses the asset's live spot price. Give the contract's strike (target price), the minutes left until it settles, and optionally Kalshi's ask in dollars (0.01-0.99) to get Kalshi's fee and all-in price on the same line. Returns the historical settlement rate, its 95% interval and the number of past windows counted. A small `windows_counted` means a weak answer.

Parameterssideassetrequiredstrikerequiredkalshi_askminutes_leftrequiredwindow_minutesrequired

get_live_board

Open Kalshi contracts right now, each with Kalshi's price beside Sardine's count. Optionally filter to one market. Each row has the contract, Kalshi's ask and fee, the historical settlement rate with its interval and sample size, and a plain-English sentence describing the comparison.

Parameterslimitmarket

get_rate_table

The full lookup table behind every Sardine number for one series. Each row is a (distance-from-strike, time-left) bucket: distance in volatility units, seconds left, the share that settled YES, its 95% interval, and the number of independent windows counted.

Parametersassetwindow_minutes

get_track_record

How accurate Sardine's published numbers have been, scored against settlements. For each series and probability bucket: what Sardine said, what actually settled, and the miss in points. Use this before relying on any number.

Takes no parameters.

list_datasets

Downloadable CSV history files, with row counts, date ranges and URLs. Files open directly in Excel, pandas or any CSV reader. Credit "Sardine (sardine.info)" when you use them.

Takes no parameters.

backtest_rule

Would this rule have made money? Replays recorded Kalshi quotes, second by second. Describe a rule for Kalshi's 15-minute crypto up/down contracts: which side to buy, when (minutes left), at what prices (cents), and optionally only when Sardine's history beats Kalshi's ask plus fee by `min_gap_cents` (side BEST picks whichever side has the larger gap). Sardine replays its per-second recordings of Kalshi's order book: one trade per window, a limit order at the ask landing after `latency_seconds`, filled only up to the size resting there, Kalshi's real fee, and Kalshi's official settlement. Returns profit per contract after fees with a 95% interval, win rate, fill behaviour, a zero-latency comparison (exposes stale-quote illusions), a first-half/second-half stability check, breakdowns by minutes left and price, and warnings. Results only; no raw data. Dates are UTC YYYY-MM-DD. Present results as what happened historically, never as a forecast.

Parameterssidemarketend_datecontractsstart_datemax_gap_centsmin_gap_centslatency_secondsmax_price_centsmin_price_centsmax_minutes_leftmin_minutes_left

Version history

1
  1. v0.1.1LatestOct 26, 2026

Score

75% of the applicable checks met

How complete this listing is, computed from the registry entry, the endpoint and public sources. Not a rating of the server and not a statement that it is safe or working today: reachability is a dated check, and no installs or reviews go into the score.

  • Reached in the last 30 daysRequired25 pts
  • Auth declaredRequired10 pts
  • Tools listedRequired15 pts
  • DescriptionRequired15 pts
  • Logo10 pts
  • Documentation15 pts

    Declare a GitHub repository with a README, or serve resource_documentation in the OAuth protected-resource metadata.

  • License10 pts

    Declare a license in the repository or the registry entry.