TeleKashOracle

io.github.TeleKashOraclePublished by GitHub account TeleKashOraclev1.0.0Updated Oct 24, 2026

Prediction market probability oracle. 500+ markets from Kalshi, Polymarket & Metaculus.

VerifiedSTDIODesktop onlyFinanceData & Analytics

Overview

AI-generated overview

Prediction market oracle that lets an assistant query live Kalshi and Polymarket odds, signals and arbitrage, and optionally place trades.

What you can do
  • Look up and browse markets: real-time YES/NO probabilities, full-text search, category listings, history, trending swings and aggregate stats
  • Analyze odds: AI sentiment, cross-source comparison, arbitrage and divergence detection, structured signals, Kelly sizing and prediction performance tracking
  • Trade and manage positions: route orders to Kalshi, Polymarket or native pools, check order status, cancel orders, view pool status and agent balance, create custom markets, export data
  • Administer access: generate an API key, check usage and rate limits, register or delete webhook alerts, check system health
When to use it
Useful when an assistant needs current market-implied probabilities on politics, crypto, sports, finance or weather, or wants cross-exchange comparison and arbitrage signals. Also relevant for agents that need to place or manage prediction market trades.
Requirements
Runs locally via npx (Node.js). Works without credentials but returns demo data; live data needs SUPABASE_URL and SUPABASE_ANON_KEY. Paid tiers and trading need an API key, and optional payment settings use wallet addresses and Stripe keys. Network access required.
Before you install
Trading tools place, cancel and create real-money orders, and paid tiers bill per query with commission and pool fees; payments can be made in USDC, fiat or TON. The README asks for a Supabase anon key, an API key, EVM and TON wallet addresses and a Stripe secret key. Webhook alerts and market creation write data. Verify pricing and data accuracy before relying on signals.

Installation

In SourceWeft

  1. Open TeleKashOracle in the dashboard and add it to a workspace.
  2. Enable the server for the chats that should use its tools.

Desktop only via STDIO. STDIO servers start a local process, so they need the SourceWeft desktop host.

Other MCP clients

Follow the launch instructions in the repository.

README

TeleKash MCP Server

Prediction market probability oracle for AI agents.

[npm version] [License: MIT] [MCP Compatible] [Node 18+]

What is this?

TeleKash is the probability oracle for the agent economy. Real-time access to 4,500+ live prediction markets from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket. Structured trading signals, cross-source arbitrage detection, noise filtering, and smart trade routing across crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, and science.

What makes it different:

  • Multi-source — Kalshi + Polymarket + native pools, not single-exchange
  • Self-calibrating — Platt scaling with daily recalibration cycles and Brier score tracking
  • Universal Payment Layer — agents pay per-call with USDC (Base/Polygon/Solana via x402), fiat (Stripe), or TON
  • 28 tools — from free probabilities to broker execution with 1% commission

Quick Install

bash
npx telekash-mcp-server

Claude Code

bash
claude mcp add telekash-oracle npx telekash-mcp-server

Claude Desktop / Cursor

Add to your MCP configuration file:

json
{  "mcpServers": {    "telekash-oracle": {      "command": "npx",      "args": ["telekash-mcp-server"]    }  }}

Tools

28 tools across 4 categories. All tools work without an API key on the Free tier (100 queries/day). 4,500+ live markets.

Intelligence

ToolWhat it doesTier
get_probabilityReal-time YES/NO probability with volume-weighted confidence scoreFree
list_marketsBrowse markets by category, source, jurisdiction, with sortingFree
search_marketsFull-text search across 4,500+ marketsFree
get_historyHistorical probability changes over 1h, 24h, 7d, 30dFree
get_sentimentAI sentiment analysis with conviction, momentum, and noise filterFree
get_market_statsAggregate statistics across all markets and sourcesFree
get_trendingMarkets with the biggest probability swingsFree
compare_sourcesKalshi vs Polymarket side-by-side odds comparisonCalibration

Analytics

ToolWhat it doesTier
detect_arbitrageCross-source arbitrage opportunities with buy/sell signalsCalibration
get_signalStructured TPF signal: probability + sentiment + noise filter + verdictCalibration
get_divergencesMarkets where sources disagree most (STRONG/MODERATE/WEAK)Calibration
get_edgeKelly Criterion sizing, expected value, and risk classificationCalibration
track_predictionRecord predictions for accuracy trackingCalibration
get_performanceBrier score, calibration curve, edge-vs-market analysisCalibration

Trading

ToolWhat it doesTier
execute_tradeRoute trades to Kalshi, Polymarket, or native parimutuel poolsEdge
get_order_statusCheck fill status, price, and commission on broker ordersEdge
cancel_orderCancel pending or submitted broker ordersEdge
get_pool_statusNative pool composition, participant counts, implied oddsEdge
get_agent_balanceAgent balance, P&L, win rate, and pool position countEdge
get_resolution_statusMulti-source resolution verification and confidence levelsEdge
create_marketCreate custom binary prediction marketsEdge
export_dataBulk export: probability history, resolutions, catalogs, arbitrageEdge

Admin

ToolWhat it doesTier
generate_api_keyGenerate a free API key (no signup required)Free
get_usageCheck current API usage, rate limits, and tier statusFree
register_alertWebhook alerts for probability crosses, mispricings, volume spikesEdge
list_alertsList active webhook alerts with delivery statsEdge
delete_alertDelete a webhook alertEdge
get_healthSystem health: connectivity, data freshness, broker statusFree

Pricing

Per-query pricing. No subscriptions. Free tier requires no API key.

TierCostQueries/DayWhat you get
Free$0100Probabilities, search, trending, sentiment, stats, health
Calibration$0.01/query1,000+ Cross-source comparison, arbitrage, signals, divergence, Kelly sizing, performance tracking
Edge$0.05/queryUnlimited+ Broker trading (1% commission), native pools (5% fee), webhooks, data export, market creation

Revenue model

StreamRateDescription
Intelligence queries$0 - $0.05/queryReal-time probability, sentiment, signals
Broker trades1% commissionBest-price execution routed to Kalshi or Polymarket
Native pool trades5% fee at resolutionParimutuel pools alongside Telegram users

Universal Payment Layer

Agents can also pay per-call without an API key or tier — attach payment proof directly in tool arguments.

RailNetworkAssetFee
x402 (Coinbase)Base, Polygon, SolanaUSDCFree (0%)
Stripe MPPFiatUSD (cards, bank)2.9%
TONTON mainnetTONFree (0%)
typescript
// Agent pays per-call — no subscription neededconst result = await client.callTool({  name: "get_signal",  arguments: {    query: "Bitcoin 200K",    x402_payment: {      tx_hash: "0xabc...",      network: "base",      rail: "x402",    },  },});

Get an API key

bash
# Via the MCP server itself (free tier, no signup)# Call the generate_api_key tool
# Or via Telegram# Message @TeleKashBot with /apikey

Example

Connect to the server and query a market probability:

typescript
import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js";import { StdioClientTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/stdio.js";
const transport = new StdioClientTransport({  command: "npx",  args: ["telekash-mcp-server"],});
const client = new Client({ name: "my-agent", version: "1.0.0" });await client.connect(transport);
// Get probability for a marketconst result = await client.callTool({  name: "get_probability",  arguments: { query: "Will Bitcoin hit $200K by end of 2026?" },});
console.log(result.content);// => { probability: { yes: 34, no: 66 }, confidence: { grade: "HIGH", score: 82 }, ... }

More examples in the examples/ directory:

  • quick-start.ts -- Connect, search, get probabilities
  • arbitrage-scanner.ts -- Find cross-source mispricings
  • portfolio-scanner.ts -- Scan markets and build a ranked portfolio
  • market-monitor.ts -- Watch a market and log probability changes

Environment Variables

The server works without any credentials (returns demo data). For live market access:

SUPABASE_URL=https://rrkjtdnxkscukexbsrue.supabase.coSUPABASE_ANON_KEY=your-anon-keyTELEKASH_API_KEY=your-api-key              # Optional: enables paid tiersTELEKASH_PAYMENT_ADDRESS=0x...             # Optional: EVM wallet for x402 USDC paymentsTELEKASH_TON_ADDRESS=UQ...                 # Optional: TON wallet for TON paymentsSTRIPE_SECRET_KEY=sk_...                   # Optional: Stripe for fiat paymentsX402_FACILITATOR_URL=https://x402.org/facilitator  # Default: Coinbase facilitator

Data Sources

SourceTypeSync Frequency
KalshiCFTC-regulated US exchangeEvery 15 minutes
PolymarketCrypto-native exchangeEvery hour

All sources are aggregated, deduplicated, and categorized automatically across 8 categories: crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, science.

Links

License

MIT

Source: README.md at commit e664a7a

Tools

0
SourceWeft has not started this package in its sandbox yet, so its tools are not known.

Version history

1
  1. v1.0.0LatestSep 16, 2026

Score

50% of the applicable checks met

How complete this listing is, computed from the registry entry, the endpoint and public sources. Not a rating of the server and not a statement that it is safe or working today: reachability is a dated check, and no installs or reviews go into the score.

  • Reached in the last 30 days25 pts

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  • Auth declared10 pts

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  • Tools listed15 pts

    Answer tools/list without a credential, or ship a package that starts in a sandbox without one.

  • DescriptionRequired15 pts
  • Logo10 pts
  • Documentation15 pts
  • License10 pts