Isoba — Dollar & Crisis Index

Today's readings with the data date: Dollar System Index (where the dollar system stands and what it is made of), Crisis meter (stress already present in credit and funding, four sensors with week-ago and month-ago values), Market shock (a hit to markets that does not go through credit: Treasury turbulence, a policy-uncertainty jump, an oil collapse, a jump in financial stress — with what followed such shocks since 1990), market anomalies (how many of 18 public series made an unusual two-week move), market-top risk and US recession risk (how often an S&P 500 bear market or a US recession followed the same zone since 1990, with the number of independent episodes behind each number), what changed this week, and a link to the public daily record. Say the data date and credit "Isoba (LOKIO)". Describe readings as where things stand now and as history ("in similar periods since 1990, X happened in N of M cases"), never as a forecast, a signal, or advice to buy or sell. If someone asks what to do with their own money, give the readings and say that this is not investment advice.

Takes no parameters.

What Isoba showed on any working day since 1990-01-01: the dollar index, crisis meter, market shock, market-top and recession risk with zones, the market-anomalies share, every sensor, the eight filters (since 2006), the yield curve and the four credit inputs — computed point-in-time from data published by that day. Use for "what did it show before 2008 / on the day of COVID?".

What moved between two dates and why: each instrument including market shock (from → to, zone change), the market-anomalies share, the sensors that moved most and any that switched on or off, and the filters. Use when the user asked before ("since last week / since I last checked") or asks why a reading changed.

Days since 1990 when the 14 sensors of the crisis meter, market-top risk and recession risk stood closest to a given day (default: today), at least half a year apart and at least a year before the given day, and what followed within 12 months: the crisis meter peak, a US recession (NBER), an S&P 500 bear market, the dollar index. History, not a forecast — always show the spread of outcomes.

How many points each instrument is from the next zone boundary up or down, which sensors are closest to switching on or off (threshold 80), and the freshest and stalest inputs. Use for "what would change the picture?".

Takes no parameters.

What markets price now (Fed rate path from the 2-year Treasury yield, 5-year breakeven inflation, yields) and what happened over the next 12 months after the 10 days since 1990 most similar to today (same 14 sensors as find_similar_days, at least half a year apart), with the number of distinct cycles behind them: US dollar, US stocks (market value of companies, Fed Z.1), 10-year Treasury return, Fed rate, core inflation, unemployment, WTI oil, yield curve, corporate bond spread, cash vs inflation, M2 money growth, and the crypto backdrop (dollar and M2 — there is no open crypto price history since 1990). Report counts ("rose in 9 of 10"), the median and the range, and how many cycles stand behind them. History and market prices, not a forecast. Say the data date and credit "Isoba (LOKIO)". Describe readings as where things stand now and as history ("in similar periods since 1990, X happened in N of M cases"), never as a forecast, a signal, or advice to buy or sell. If someone asks what to do with their own money, give the readings and say that this is not investment advice.

Takes no parameters.

Monthly averages of one or several instruments between two months (DSI since 2006, the others since 1990), with the zone of each month: dollar index, crisis meter, market shock, market anomalies, market-top and recession risk. Use for trends and to see what the instruments showed around past events.

How Isoba behaved when run point-in-time over every working day since 1990 (only data published by each day, checked for look-ahead). Default section "summary" is short; ask for a section (crisis_events, recessions, market_tops, false_alarms, by_year, methods, all) or one event (gulf, ltcm, dotcom, sept11, worldcom, bnp, lehman, euro, downgrade, china, oil2016, q4_2018, covid, bear2022, svb, tariffs — or its year). Call it before claiming reliability.

The "Your money" card of the Isoba app for one currency: what 1 US dollar costs in it (for USD — what 1 euro costs), gold (US dollars per troy ounce, and per gram in the currency), Brent oil and bitcoin in US dollars, and cash — inflation and how much buying power it lost over 1 and 5 years. For each: the price with its date and source, the change over a month and a year, and what happened over the next month (for cash — the next year) in similar past moments: number of cases since when, the usual outcome, 1 in 10 worse than, the worst and the best; the risk for someone who holds it (bad outcomes now vs all days), and for the currency "wait a week?" (how often the rate was higher a week later in similar moments vs on all days). History, not a forecast. Say the data date and credit "Isoba (LOKIO)". Describe readings as where things stand now and as history ("in similar periods since 1990, X happened in N of M cases"), never as a forecast, a signal, or advice to buy or sell. If someone asks what to do with their own money, give the readings and say that this is not investment advice.