io.github.spfunctionsPublished by GitHub account spfunctionsv1.1.0Updated Oct 25, 2026
Calibrated world model for AI agents. 40 tools: world state, markets, trading. Kalshi + Polymarket.
A prediction-market and macro research server that lets an assistant scan Kalshi and Polymarket contracts, build theses, and set up automated trading intents.
Web executable via Streamable HTTP. Remote servers run from the web runtime once configured in a workspace.
Paste this prompt into Claude Code, Codex, Cursor or another agent — or into SourceWeft chat. The agent reads this server's install guide, shows you its publisher, endpoint and sign-in, and adds it to your client once you agree. Keys never go into a command.
Read https://sourceweft.com/mcp/io.github.spfunctions%2Fsimplefunctions/install.md and connect the MCP server it describes to my client. Before changing any config, show me its publisher, endpoint and sign-in method and wait for my OK. Never put an API key in a command or in a file I would commit; ask me where it should come from.Add this to your client's mcpServers config.
{
"mcpServers": {
"simplefunctions": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp"
}
}
}This repository has no README.
START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. With thesisId + apiKey: thesis-specific context including causal tree, edges with orderbook depth, evaluation history, and track record. Global context is free-tier and rate-limited; API keys unlock higher limits.
apiKeythesisIdList all theses for the authenticated user.
apiKeyrequiredFeed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges.
typeapiKeyrequiredcontentrequiredthesisIdrequiredForce immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals.
apiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequiredSearch Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited.
querymarketseriesCreate a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: "Bitcoin closes 2026 above $50,000". BAD: "High conviction due to large price gap" (that is reasoning, not a claim). Builds a causal tree and scans for mispriced contracts. Formation takes ~60s.
syncapiKeyrequiredthesisrequiredBrowse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all.
slugGet traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curve + credit), fx (DXY, JPY, EUR, GBP), equities (QQQ, IWM, EEM, sectors), crypto (BTC/ETH ETFs + futures), volatility (VIX suite).
topicFree-form historical market data query via Databento. Stocks, ETFs, CME futures (WTI, Brent, bonds, VIX, FX, BTC), options. OHLCV daily/hourly/minute, trades, BBO. Max 30 days, 5 symbols, 500 rows. Free-tier and rate-limited.
daysstypeschemadatasetsymbolsrequiredBEST FOR QUESTIONS. Ask any question about probabilities or future events. Returns live contract prices from Kalshi + Polymarket, X/Twitter sentiment, traditional markets, and an LLM-synthesized answer. Free-tier and rate-limited; API keys unlock higher limits.
qrequiredIndicator-based market screener. The middle layer between raw price scan and LLM thesis edges. Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip required for the screening pass itself. Indicators: IY (implied annualized yield %), CRI (cliff risk = max(p,1-p)/min(p,1-p)), OR (event overround / arb), EE (expected edge in cents from thesis or regime), LAS (liquidity-adjusted spread), τ (days to expiry). Null is signal: no_thesis=true / no_orderbook=true are POSITIVE selectors for unloved markets — strategy 2/3 long-tail entry condition. Free-tier and rate-limited; API keys unlock higher limits.
sortlimitordervenueee_miniy_maxiy_minor_maxor_mincri_maxcri_minkeyword+8 moreSet up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and executes when met.
apiKeyrequiredmarketrequiredhorizonmarketIdrequiredstopLossthesisIdrequireddirectionrequiredrationaleentryAboveentryBelowtakeProfitmaxQuantity+2 moreAdvanced: List trading strategies for a thesis.
apiKeyrequiredstatusthesisIdrequiredAdvanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status).
apiKeyrequiredstatusprioritystopLossthesisIdrequiredrationaleentryAboveentryBelowstrategyIdrequiredtakeProfitsoftConditionsGet upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited.
hourscategoryAdvanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time.
daysapiKeyrequiredeventTickerrequiredAdvanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L.
apiKeyrequiredtickerAdvanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value.
apiKeyrequiredAdvanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi.
apiKeyrequiredstatusGet exchange status and trading hours
Takes no parameters.
Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi.
apiKeyrequiredtickerScenario analysis: "what if OPEC cuts production?" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant.
apiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequiredoverridesrequiredAdvanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only).
apiKeyrequireddryRunthesisIdrequiredTop mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + public.
limitvenueapiKeyminEdgeS&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing, direction, and risk. Free-tier and rate-limited. START HERE when looking for what to trade.
limitcategoryfreshnessDeclare an execution intent: "buy X when condition Y, expire at Z." Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates triggers and executes via user's Kalshi/Polymarket keys.
venuerequiredactionrequiredapiKeyrequiredsourceexpireAtmarketIdrequiredmaxPricesourceIddirectionrequiredrationaleautoExecutemarketTitlerequired+3 moreList execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status.
apiKeyrequiredstatusactiveOnlyCancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution.
apiKeyrequiredintentIdrequiredSearch X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly.
modehourslimitqueryrequiredapiKeyrequiredAdvanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity.
hoursqueryrequiredapiKeyrequiredgranularityAdvanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers.
limitqueryrequiredapiKeyrequiredAdvanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account.
hourslimitapiKeyrequiredusernamerequiredConfigure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation. Agent can speed up monitoring during high volatility or slow down to save budget.
apiKeyrequiredpausedthesisIdrequiredxIntervalMinevalModelTierclosedLoopExitclosedLoopEntrynewsIntervalMinmonthlyBudgetUsdUpdate thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume.
titleapiKeyrequiredstatusthesisIdrequiredwebhookUrlRecord a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade.
sizevenuerequiredapiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequireddirectionrequiredrationaleentryPricerequiredmarketTitlerequiredexternalMarketIdrequiredUpdate a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data.
edgesizeapiKeyrequiredstatusthesisIdrequiredrationalepositionIdrequiredcurrentPriceDelete a position record from a thesis.
apiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequiredpositionIdrequiredConfidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence.
apiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequiredDirectly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. "CPI came in at 3.2%") and wants to reflect it immediately. Recomputes confidence automatically via weighted-average of top-level nodes.
lockapiKeyrequiredupdatesrequiredthesisIdrequiredGet heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage.
apiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequiredUniversal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any webhook. Requires API key (apiKey parameter). For free demo, use enrich_content instead.
apiKeyrequiredenrichsourcerequiredwebhookanalysisCross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market prices. No auth, no Firecrawl needed. Demo/trial entry point.
modeltopicsrequiredcontentrequiredincludeIndexCreate a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command.
autonamerequiredtagsapiKeyrequiredpromptrequiredtriggerrequiredcategorytoolsUseddescriptionrequiredestimatedTimeList all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills.
apiKeyrequiredGet a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata.
apiKeyrequiredskillIdrequiredPublish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable.
slugrequiredapiKeyrequiredskillIdrequiredFork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID.
apiKeyrequiredskillIdrequiredBrowse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity.
qsortcategoryFork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to split a thesis you own into a new analytical frame for the same market sector; the parent enters dormant mode and the child re-runs formation. Use evolve when the current frame is fundamentally inadequate for what the evidence now shows.
apiKeyrequiredreasonidOrSlugrequirednewTitlenewRawThesisinheritEdgeMarketIdsReal-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. Anchor contracts (recession, Fed, Iran) always present. No auth needed.
focusformatIncremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks.
sincerequiredformatRead messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent communication layer for sharing signals, edges, analysis, and coordination.
limitsinceapiKeyrequiredtickerchannelPost a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents.
typerequiredapiKeyrequiredchannelrequiredcontentrequiredreplyTotickersagentNameSubscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox.
apiKeyrequiredchannelsrequiredSearch legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions.
qrequiredmodeSearch official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets.
qrequiredmodeincludeMarketsGet bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation.
billIdrequiredSTEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstructure trend, contagion signals, market diff. Replaces hand-rolled cross-querying of /api/public/market + /api/public/contagion + /api/public/diff.
diffdepthtrendformattickerrequiredcontagionGet full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JSON only.
depthtickerrequiredGet rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering.
tickerrequiredPer-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift.
daystickerrequiredintervalFetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop.
depthtickersrequiredRe-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For "of these N markets, which has best yield?" workflows.
sortordertickersrequiredSimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes.
Takes no parameters.
Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends.
daysScan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening.
sortlabellimitordervenuehasEdgeeventTypeConnected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces "this market should have moved but didn't" trades.
topicwindowDiff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For "what changed in the last 6h?" questions.
sorttopicwindowtickersEditorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view.
Takes no parameters.
Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card.
topicwindowUpcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers.
dayscategoryMacro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses.
seriescategoryLiquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). For "where on the curve am I trading?" questions.
limitvenueminPointsSingle yield curve for one event series.
eventrequiredvenueRecently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities.
hourslimitvenueminLiquiditySimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets.
periodcategoryPre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations.
slugrequiredRuntime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding.
qintentCross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals.
qrequiredMarket change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers.
qtypesinceList authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)
apiKeyrequiredGet a single published skill by slug.
slugrequiredList glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes).
qcategoryGet a single glossary term with full definition and links.
slugrequiredList SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading.
limitcategoryGet a single opinion/essay by slug.
slugrequiredList technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions).
limitcategoryGet a single technical reference doc by slug.
slugrequiredList Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets.
qlimitcongresshasMarketList sitting US Congress members.
limitstatechambercurrentMemberGet a single Congress member by bioguide ID.
idrequiredCross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI.
hourslimitapiKeyrequiredPer-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves).
sinceapiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequiredList available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to.
apiKeyrequiredAdvanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads the broker side.
apiKeyrequiredFirst-party SimpleFunctions portfolio position snapshots from the ledger-backed read model, distinct from broker-side get_positions.
limitsinceuntilvenueapiKeyrequiredcursorsourcemarketIdthesisIdconfidenceFirst-party append-only portfolio ledger events with attribution confidence and source evidence.
limitsinceuntilvenueapiKeyrequiredcursorsourcemarketIdthesisIdeventTypeconfidenceFirst-party portfolio fill and partial-fill events projected from the ledger.
limitsinceuntilvenueapiKeyrequiredcursorsourcemarketIdthesisIdconfidenceDaily portfolio P&L attribution rows; unknown attribution remains explicit.
tofromlimitvenueapiKeyrequiredcursorsourcemarketIdthesisIdconfidenceBounded grouped portfolio P&L attribution by source, thesis, strategy, market, venue, or confidence.
tofromlimitvenueapiKeyrequiredsourcegroupBymarketIdthesisIdconfidencePortfolio risk utilization, execution mode, and stale-data state without returning configured secrets.
apiKeyrequiredFirst-party portfolio activity timeline backed by the portfolio ledger.
limitsinceuntilvenueapiKeyrequiredcursorsourcemarketIdthesisIdeventTypeconfidenceAuth-only thesis context: causal tree, edges with orderbook depth, evaluation history, and track record. Use get_context with no thesisId for the global market snapshot.
apiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequiredText-to-speech proxy. Returns audio bytes encoded as base64.
textrequiredspeedapiKeyrequiredvoiceIdSpeech-to-text proxy. Pass base64-encoded audio, get transcribed text.
audiorequiredapiKeyrequiredBrowse public theses (alias of explore_public). Pass slug to get one, omit to list.
slugGet heartbeat config + monthly cost summary for a thesis (alias of get_heartbeat_status).
apiKeyrequiredthesisIdrequiredGet bill detail with prediction-market cross-reference (alias of legislation).
billIdrequired75% of the applicable checks met
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