Russia–NATO risk ladder

site.russianatoPublished by russianato.siteOfficial publisherv1.7.0Updated Oct 27, 2026

Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

VerifiedStreamable HTTPWeb executableWeb Search & ScrapingData & Analytics

Overview

AI-generated overview

Remote MCP server exposing labelled Russia–NATO escalation risk forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments, with provenance for every number.

What you can do
  • Read an overview of annual risk across five escalation levels for today, a year ago and a year ahead, with average intelligence tone per country
  • Get the risk ladder for any date from one year back to one year ahead, including cumulative risk and optional what-if assumptions
  • Review published forecast history and other prediction-market forecasts with check dates and corrections
  • Browse intelligence assessments from 12 countries with hand-coded tone scores, plus the 51 underlying sources
  • Read the changelog, corrections history and methodology, including level definitions, formulas and assumptions
When to use it
Useful when an assistant needs sourced, dated figures on Russia–NATO escalation risk, scenario comparisons or intelligence tone rather than improvised estimates, and when the provenance of each number matters.
Requirements
A remote streamable HTTP endpoint; no package, account, API key or environment variable is declared. Network access to the endpoint is required.
Before you install
All figures are forecasts, scenarios or model output, not facts; the server labels each number as published, model or manual, and past dates rely on a forecast archive while future dates come from a scenario model. Treat results as one source and cite it as requested.

Installation

In SourceWeft

  1. Open Russia–NATO risk ladder in the dashboard and add it to a workspace.
  2. Enable the server for the chats that should use its tools.

Web executable via Streamable HTTP. Remote servers run from the web runtime once configured in a workspace.

Use with an agent

Paste this prompt into Claude Code, Codex, Cursor or another agent — or into SourceWeft chat. The agent reads this server's install guide, shows you its publisher, endpoint and sign-in, and adds it to your client once you agree. Keys never go into a command.

Read https://sourceweft.com/mcp/site.russianato%2Frisk-ladder/install.md and connect the MCP server it describes to my client. Before changing any config, show me its publisher, endpoint and sign-in method and wait for my OK. Never put an API key in a command or in a file I would commit; ask me where it should come from.

Read the install guide the agent follows

Other MCP clients

Add this to your client's mcpServers config.

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "russia-nato-risk-ladder": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Tools

8

get_overview

Overview

Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).

Parameterslang

get_risk_ladder

Risk ladder for a date and scenario

Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.

Parametersdatelangscenariohybrid_pctwide_share_pctscenario_factorregional_share_pct

get_forecast_history

Forecast history

Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.

Parameterstofromlangseries

get_intelligence_assessments

Intelligence assessments

Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.

Parameterslanglimitcountrydimension

get_sources

Sources

The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.

Parameterslangtypelimitquerycountry

get_other_forecasts

Other forecasts

Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.

Parameterslang

get_changelog

Changelog and corrections

Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).

Parameterslangtypelimit

get_methodology

Methodology

Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

Parameterslang

Version history

1
  1. v1.7.0LatestOct 15, 2026

Score

83% of the applicable checks met

How complete this listing is, computed from the registry entry, the endpoint and public sources. Not a rating of the server and not a statement that it is safe or working today: reachability is a dated check, and no installs or reviews go into the score.

  • Reached in the last 30 daysRequired25 pts
  • Auth declaredRequired10 pts
  • Tools listedRequired15 pts
  • DescriptionRequired15 pts
  • Logo10 pts
  • Documentation15 pts

    Declare a GitHub repository with a README, or serve resource_documentation in the OAuth protected-resource metadata.

  • LicenseNot applicable

    A hosted service is used under its provider's terms, so no license is expected here. This check is left out of the percentage.