Prediction Markets Quant

com.predictionmarketspicks由 predictionmarketspicks.com 发布官方发布者v1.30.1更新于 Nov 7, 2026

Independent quant layer: fee-adjusted edge, Kelly, combos, best price: Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig

发布方自己的服务:Fantasy Football MCP — Draft, Start/Sit, Waivers

已验证Streamable HTTP可网页运行金融数据与分析AI 与机器学习

概览

AI 生成的概览

面向 Kalshi 与 Polymarket 预测市场的托管量化工具:扣除手续费后的优势、凯利仓位、跨平台价差与实时行情面板。

可以做什么
  • 运行无状态计算器:期望值优势、凯利仓位、贝叶斯更新、概率与赔率换算、基准率差距与串关评级。
  • 读取 Kalshi 实时行情:美联储利率概率、15 分钟加密与商品窗口、永续合约及爆仓估算、每日最高气温合约。
  • 比较各平台价格:某合约扣费后最便宜的价格,以及 Kalshi 与 Polymarket 之间的跨平台套利价差。
  • 查看政治类市场:2026 年参议院席位图,以及单个参议院、州长或众议院选区的赔率。
  • 查看体育类市场:NFL 实力评分、胜率、阶梯定价、NFL 与 NBA 的球员与比赛盘口、NHL 优势,以及分引擎的评级战绩。
  • 解释模型对某场比赛、某个球员盘口或阶梯的判断依据,并根据期望值结果计算仓位。
适用场景
适合让助手用实时工具返回的数字而非估算来回答预测市场价格、优势与仓位问题,或比较同一合约在 Kalshi 与 Polymarket 上的定价。
运行要求
远程 Streamable HTTP 端点,无需安装。多数工具无需账户,但 Pro 工具需要 PredictionMarketsPicks API 密钥(付费订阅),通过 npm 桥接时以 PMP_API_KEY 提供。另有可选本地模式,可离线运行六个计算器,不联网。
安装前请注意
Pro 结果需要付费订阅密钥,请妥善保管 PMP_API_KEY。输出为市场数据与模型估算,并非投资建议;所谓优势只是模型与市场的分歧,不构成保证。部分工具会读取第三方博彩公司与交易平台价格,服务器自身说明要求引用数字时标注来源链接。

安装

在 SourceWeft 中

  1. 打开 控制台中的 Prediction Markets Quant,将其添加到工作区。
  2. 为需要使用其工具的对话启用该服务。

Web executable,通过 Streamable HTTP。 远程服务在工作区中配置后即可从网页运行时运行。

交给智能体安装

把这段提示词粘贴到 Claude Code、Codex、Cursor 等智能体,或 SourceWeft 对话中。智能体会读取该服务器的安装指南,先向你展示发布者、端点和登录方式,经你同意后再把它添加到你的客户端。密钥不会写进任何命令。

阅读 https://sourceweft.com/mcp/com.predictionmarketspicks%2Fquant/install.md,并按其中说明把这个 MCP 服务器接入我的客户端。修改任何配置之前,先告诉我它的发布者、端点和登录方式,等我确认。不要把 API 密钥写进命令或我会提交的文件;问我密钥应从哪里获取。

查看智能体所依据的安装指南

其他 MCP 客户端

把它添加到你客户端的 mcpServers 配置中。

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "prediction-markets-quant": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}

README

Hosted endpoint + full tool list: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp?utm_source=github&utm_medium=repo&utm_campaign=mcp-readme

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

Canonical home: predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp — docs, setup, the live wall and the per-tool track record. This repo is the bridge and the offline calculators; the server lives on the site.

[npm] [mcp MCP server] [M8ven Verified]

A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, Fed rate odds, Kalshi's 15-minute markets and perps (with liquidation estimates), live edge signals, and the in-season NFL model: power ratings, win probability, The Ladder, the weekly prop board and game/prop edges.

Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it — per tool, wins and losses both, including the engines that lose money. The live record: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record

  • Endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm
  • Registry name: com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (MCP registry)
  • 40 tools on the main endpoint (/api/mcp/mcp), 45 across the two hosted servers: the fantasy-draft server adds adp_market_gaps, best_available, compare_players, draft_board and who_do_i_draft. No key needed for the free set. Counts read from the live tools/list on 2026-11-03.
  • Fantasy draft landing page: predictionmarketspicks.com/draft — the eight draft tools, connect instructions, and the model behind the board. During the season all eight answer week-by-week NFL market questions instead of draft questions.

See it work

[Kalshi vs Polymarket price gaps in one question]

  • Gemini CLI: install in one command, ask which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open. (47s demo · setup)
  • Kalshi vs Polymarket, in one question: ask where the two venues disagree, then whether they agree on the next Fed meeting. (50s demo · setup guide)
  • Kalshi 15-minute gold & Bitcoin + the BTC perp: live boards and perp funding in one chat. (48s demo · commodity markets)
  • Claude, ChatGPT & Cursor: paste one URL and ask. (40s demo · Cursor setup)
  • Kalshi weather edges + Kelly sizing: forecast vs market, then the position size, in one chat. (46s demo · weather)

Connect

One click: Add to Cursor · Add to VS Code · Gemini CLI: gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp

Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:

claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm

Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:

jsonc
{  "mcpServers": {    "predictionmarketspicks": {      "command": "npx",      "args": ["-y", "@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"]    }  }}

That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 40 tools on the main endpoint, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.

npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp            # bridge to the hosted quant server (default)npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --draft    # bridge to the fantasy-draft servernpx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --local    # 6 calculators, offline, no network at all

--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the NFL model, or anything that reads a market.

Other hosted surfaces (same registry, same tool objects, different selection — no separate install):

ServerEndpointExposes
com.predictionmarketspicks/quanthttps://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm40 tools
com.predictionmarketspicks/fantasy-drafthttps://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-draft/mcp?via=github11 tools: the 8 draft tools (all answer in season with the week's market) plus the in-season league tools my_league, start_sit and waiver_targets
com.predictionmarketspicks/weatherhttps://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=githubThe 7-tool weather loop: weather_board (every open Kalshi daily-high strike) + edge_alerts (weather feed) + the five calculators
com.predictionmarketspicks/commoditieshttps://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=githubThe 10-tool macro & commodities desk: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge (gold / silver / oil / bitcoin), fed_rate_odds, market_pulse, base_rate_gap + three calculators
com.predictionmarketspicks/electionshttps://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-elections/mcp?via=githubThe election odds desk: senate_map, race_odds, best_price (every 2026 Senate, governor and House race on Kalshi), fed_rate_odds, market_pulse
com.predictionmarketspicks/cryptohttps://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-crypto/mcp?via=githubThe crypto desk: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge (bitcoin) + three calculators

Tools

Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). Deeper results on the list-shaped tools unlock instantly and free — no key to copy, nothing to install: unlock here.

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local

ToolWhat it does
calculate_evExpected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
kelly_sizeKelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating.
bayes_updateUpdate a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain.
convert_probabilityConvert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds.
base_rate_gapCompare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality.
combo_edgeGrade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag.

Markets — free

ToolWhat it does
fed_rate_oddsLive Kalshi-implied odds of a Fed rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, plus the next meeting and the current fed funds rate.
fifteen_min_boardEvery Kalshi 15-minute series live — crypto, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper, currencies — with the open window's YES price, close time, settlement source, and how the last 96 windows settled.
perps_boardEvery Kalshi perp — price, volume, open interest, max leverage, and what funding has cost a long since launch.
perp_liquidationWhere a leveraged Kalshi perp position liquidates (an estimate from Kalshi's published risk parameters), with fees and funding over the hold.
weather_boardEvery open Kalshi daily-high temperature strike in 13 cities — YES price, settlement station, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it.

Politics — free

ToolWhat it does
senate_mapEvery 2026 Senate seat — holder, structure rating, forecaster ratings and the live Kalshi price, closest race first. Unpriced seats return null, never an estimate.
race_oddsLive Kalshi odds for one 2026 Senate, governor or competitive House race (by state or district, e.g. "TX-34") — every leg's price, volume and link, plus the forecaster ratings.
best_priceWhere the same contract is cheapest after fees — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs Novig — for a sports game, a 2026 race or the next Fed meeting. Ranked by price only.

Markets — free, depth-capped

ToolWhat it does
find_arbitrageCross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro.
market_pulseUS macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free.

NFL in-season — free

ToolWhat it does
nfl_power_ratingsPWR for all 32 NFL teams — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier.
nfl_win_probabilityTurn an NFL spread + total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — or pass two teams to derive the spread.
nfl_ladderThe Ladder — every Kalshi strike vs our whole distribution (spreads, season wins, props) with the derived verdict: SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED.
nfl_prop_boardThis week's NFL prop prices venue by venue — every Kalshi strike vs the book consensus, DraftKings/FanDuel lines, Novig/ProphetX, and where the best price for each side actually is.
nba_prop_boardEvery Kalshi NBA player-prop strike (points, rebounds, assists, threes) beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same strike — the cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices only, no model.
nba_game_boardKalshi NBA moneyline, spread and total beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same line — the cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices only.
nba_injury_impactToday's NBA absences from the official injury report, and for each absent star the teammates whose minutes and stats rose without him (with sample sizes), beside today's Kalshi prop prices.
ladder_arbLadder Arb Scanner — Kalshi college football + NFL spread/total ladders priced out of order on the same side of the same game: locked arbitrage (buy the low strike, sell the high one) and crossed-mid inversions with the resting orders that capture them.
explain_gameWhy our model prices one NFL game where it does — Kalshi's price and line, our win probability, the model's lean in points, each team's power rating and the QB gate.
explain_propWhy one NFL player prop is a call — the YES/NO side and its Kalshi price, the tier, our projection against the threshold, and whether it is a published PLAY or held at WATCH.
explain_ladderWhy The Ladder reads one NFL strike ladder — a game's spread, a team's season win total or a player's prop — the way it does: which way our curve leans or how its shape differs from Kalshi's, where Kalshi's ladder centres beside our projection, and every strike with our number where we publish one.

NHL — free

ToolWhat it does
nhl_edgeGoal Light — every NHL game and player contract priced against Kalshi, with the book consensus beside it and a 10,000-season simulation for the futures board.
track_recordOur graded record per engine (bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, NHL) plus the daily editorial call: W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era. WATCH calls are reported apart.
my_leagueYour Sleeper league by username — each starter beside every Kalshi prop strike on him this week, with the best price per side, opponent, kickoff and OUT/QB-gate flags. Market data only.
start_sitTwo to four players side by side — the median Kalshi is pricing for each stat, read off his own strike ladder, plus his anytime-TD price. Market prices only; the call stays yours.
waiver_targetsSleeper's most-added players in the last 24 hours with what Kalshi is pricing each at — filtered to players still available in your league when you give a username.

Fantasy draft desk — in season

Answering in season (free): player_outlook · explain_player · compare_players · sleepers_and_busts — the same names, now about this week: one player's Kalshi prop strikes, why the model prices them there, two to four players side by side, and the players the market over- and underprices.

Also answering in season (free): draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · adp_market_gaps — the week's market version of each: players ranked by the median Kalshi prices them at, the strikes where Kalshi and the book consensus are 5¢+ apart, and the props on your roster. Draft answers return with the 2027 board.

Pro — live edge engines

commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts

Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed. edge_alerts is the one hybrid: Pro keys get the feed in real time, and without a key the same feed arrives delayed 24h.

All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).

Source

This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.

npm installnpm run smoke          # offline calculator self-test, no networknpm run smoke:bridge   # bridge self-test against the hosted endpointnpm start -- --local   # stdio server, 6 calculators

Or run the offline build with Docker:

docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant

About

Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.

License

MIT — see LICENSE.

来源:README.md,提交 3b7fbeb

工具

0
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版本历史

16
  1. v1.30.1最新Nov 7, 2026
  2. v1.30.0Nov 4, 2026
  3. v1.29.0Oct 24, 2026
  4. v1.28.0Oct 22, 2026
  5. v1.27.0Oct 22, 2026
  6. v1.26.0Oct 15, 2026
  7. v1.25.0Oct 13, 2026
  8. v1.24.0Oct 11, 2026
  9. v1.21.0Oct 8, 2026
  10. v1.20.0Oct 6, 2026
  11. v1.19.0Oct 2, 2026
  12. v1.18.0Sep 30, 2026
  13. v1.17.0Sep 29, 2026
  14. v1.16.0Sep 26, 2026
  15. v1.15.1Sep 18, 2026
  16. v1.15.0Sep 16, 2026

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