Sports Probabilities MCP

io.github.commodus67由 GitHub 账号 commodus67 发布v0.0.12更新于 Oct 24, 2026

Monte Carlo NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and soccer odds, plus model-vs-market edge from live prices

已验证Streamable HTTP可网页运行金融数据与分析

概览

AI 生成的概览

远程 MCP 服务器，为 NFL、MLB、NHL、NBA 和 17 个足球联赛提供蒙特卡洛赛季概率，并与 Kalshi 实时价格比较模型与市场的差距。

可以做什么
  • 获取单支球队的完整概率集合、当前战绩、预测排名与位次
  • 按概率而非积分或战绩为整个联赛排名
  • 将模型概率与 Kalshi 实时价格对比，给出优势、扣费后期望值与封顶的四分之一凯利下注额
  • 在自定义假设下重新运行模拟并分析概率变动
  • 查看某支球队概率在整个赛季中的历史变化
适用场景
当你需要某支球队或某个联赛的季后赛、夺冠、资格赛或降级概率的具体计算结果，而不是模型凭空估计时；或想了解模拟结果与实时预测市场价格的分歧时使用。
运行要求
远程 streamable HTTP 端点，无需本地安装。需要 Apify 账户：支持 OAuth 的客户端可直接登录，其他客户端需在 Authorization 请求头中以 bearer 形式提供 Apify API 令牌。按每次概率读取通过 Apify 计费。
安装前请注意
需要 Apify API 令牌或 Apify 账户登录，且按事件计费，每 1,000 次概率读取起价 50 美元。市场对比会读取 Kalshi 实时价格并给出建议下注额，但服务器声明其仅为统计结果，不构成投注建议。NHL 和 NBA 在球队打满十场前不给出价值判断与下注额。

安装

在 SourceWeft 中

  1. 打开 控制台中的 Sports Probabilities MCP，将其添加到工作区。
  2. 连接 Authorization token 凭据。它们会被私密存储，绝不会在公开页面上展示。
  3. 为需要使用其工具的对话启用该服务。

Web executable，通过 Streamable HTTP。 远程服务在工作区中配置后即可从网页运行时运行。

交给智能体安装

把这段提示词粘贴到 Claude Code、Codex、Cursor 等智能体，或 SourceWeft 对话中。智能体会读取该服务器的安装指南，先向你展示发布者、端点和登录方式，经你同意后再把它添加到你的客户端。密钥不会写进任何命令。

阅读 https://sourceweft.com/mcp/io.github.commodus67%2Fsports-probabilities-mcp/install.md，并按其中说明把这个 MCP 服务器接入我的客户端。修改任何配置之前，先告诉我它的发布者、端点和登录方式，等我确认。不要把 API 密钥写进命令或我会提交的文件；问我密钥应从哪里获取。

查看智能体所依据的安装指南

其他 MCP 客户端

把它添加到你客户端的 mcpServers 配置中。

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sports-probabilities": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp",
      "headers": {
        "Authorization": "Bearer <YOUR_TOKEN>"
      }
    }
  }
}

README

Sports Probabilities MCP

An MCP server that gives AI assistants Monte Carlo probabilities for the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and 17 soccer leagues, plus a model-versus-market comparison against live Kalshi prices.

Ask in plain language from Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor and get a computed number back — not an estimate the model made up.

The server runs on Apify: https://apify.com/commodus67/sports-probabilities-mcp

This repository holds the documentation and the registry manifest (server.json). The implementation lives in the Actor above.

Coverage

SportTeamsProbabilities
NFLAll 32Playoffs, division, wild card, No. 1 seed
MLBAll 30Postseason, division, wild card, top seed
NHLAll 32Playoffs, division, wild card, conference top seed, Presidents' Trophy
NBAAll 30Playoffs, play-in, top six, division, best record, conference finals, conference title, championship
Soccer17 leaguesTitle, top four, continental qualification, playoff, relegation

Soccer leagues: Premier League, EFL Championship, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Süper Lig, Belgian Pro League, Scottish Premiership, Brasileirão, Liga MX, Liga Profesional (Argentina), Primera A (Colombia), MLS, Austrian Bundesliga. Other ESPN soccer slugs are supported.

Tools

ToolPurpose
get_team_probabilitiesOne team's full probability set, current record, projected finish and ranking
get_league_probabilitiesA whole league ranked by probability rather than by points or record
compare_model_vs_marketModel against live Kalshi prices: edge, expected value after fees, fractional Kelly stake
run_scenarioA fresh simulation under custom model assumptions, with movement analysis
get_probability_historyHow a team's probability moved across the season, from archived runs

Model vs market

compare_model_vs_market reads live Kalshi playoff contracts for all four North American leagues — KXNFLPLAYOFF, KXMLBPLAYOFFS, KXNHLPLAYOFF and KXNBAPLAYOFF — and returns the gap between model and market, the better side of each contract, expected value after the taker fee and a capped quarter-Kelly stake.

For the NHL and NBA, value calls and stakes stay off until teams have played ten games, as in the underlying Actors; edges are still reported in full. For soccer, or to compare against a bookmaker, pass your own prices in marketProbabilities.

Connect

Streamable HTTP transport, stateless. Endpoint:

https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp

Clients that support OAuth (Claude custom connectors, for example) sign in with an Apify account — no token to paste. Other clients send an Apify API token as a bearer token:

json
{  "mcpServers": {    "sports-probabilities": {      "url": "https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp",      "headers": {        "Authorization": "Bearer YOUR_APIFY_API_TOKEN"      }    }  }}

How it works

Each answer comes from one of five published Monte Carlo Actors — NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and soccer — that take live standings and the remaining schedule, play out the rest of the season thousands of times, and count how often each outcome happens. The MCP server calls those Actors and caches the result — it does not reimplement the simulation, so an answer here never disagrees with the same query made directly against the API.

Every response carries the date and the source of the run it came from.

Pricing

Pay per event, billed through Apify. From $50.00 per 1,000 probability reads. Full pricing on the Actor page.

Note

This is statistics and simulation. It is not betting advice, and it does not produce picks.

来源：README.md，提交 f6b2e52

工具

0
该服务器需要 API 密钥等凭据，因此 SourceWeft 无法在没有凭据的情况下读取其工具，也未收录。

版本历史

1
  1. v0.0.12最新Sep 16, 2026

评分

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