skforecast-ai

io.github.skforecastv0.4.0更新于 Oct 9, 2026

Forecast time series in CSV files: deterministic skforecast workflows and the script that ran.

概览

AI 生成的概览

让助手用确定性的 skforecast 工作流对 CSV 文件中的时间序列进行预测,并返回生成结果的脚本。

功能
它会分析时间序列,按固定规则选择预测器和估计器,制定包含滞后、窗口和日历特征的方案,然后运行预测或回测,返回预测值、指标以及实际运行的 skforecast 脚本(R6、R34、R35、R36)。方法包括 profile、plan、refine_plan、create_cv、forecast、forecast_code、backtest、backtest_code、compare 和 ask(R54、R55、R56、R57、R58、R59、R60、R61)。compare 会用相同数据和交叉验证回测多个配置并排序,单序列时还会加入季节性朴素基线(R38、R39)。相同输入始终得到相同的分析、方案、脚本和预测(R40)。
适用场景
当你希望助手预测 CSV 时间序列并展示其推理过程时使用:每个决策都来自可读的规则,每个结果都附带生成它的脚本(R7)。它适合 Claude Code、Cursor 或 VS Code 等编码代理以工具形式调用该流程(R30、R31、R42)。可选的 LLM 层用于解释结果或根据领域知识调整方案(R46、R47)。
运行要求
以本地进程方式通过 uvx 运行 PyPI 包 skforecast-ai-mcp,需要 Python 3.10 或更高版本(R14)。未声明任何身份验证、环境变量或请求头。LLM 层是可选的,需要额外安装以及提供商凭据或本地模型(R13、R27、R50)。
安装前请注意
可选的 LLM 层会把数据发送给第三方提供商:结果只共享自身的预测值和指标,并附带警告,数据集本身不会被发送(R26)。提示始终是显式的,除非你主动请求,否则不会向 LLM 发送任何内容(R52)。LLM 输出会经过 Pydantic 模型校验;若无效则回退到确定性结果并给出警告(R49)。所选提供商的凭据需另行配置(R27)。

安装

在 SourceWeft 中

  1. 打开 控制台中的 skforecast-ai,将其添加到工作区。
  2. 为需要使用其工具的对话启用该服务。

Desktop only,通过 STDIO。 STDIO 服务会启动本地进程,因此需要 SourceWeft 桌面宿主。

其他 MCP 客户端

参照 仓库 中的启动说明。

README

[skforecast-ai]

About skforecast-ai

The forecasting assistant that shows its work. Give skforecast-ai a time series: it profiles the data, chooses the model with deterministic rules, validates it and returns the forecast together with the skforecast script that produced it. Every decision comes from a rule you can read, the same data always gives the same result, and the script runs on its own with plain skforecast. An optional LLM explains every decision; it never makes them.

[skforecast-ai forecast of hourly bike sharing users with its 80% interval, and the ask() answer that explains the evaluation metrics]

36-hour LightGBM forecast of hourly bike sharing users, with its 80% prediction interval against the held-out hours, and the answer of ask() that explains its metrics. Real skforecast-ai outputs, from the animation on ai.skforecast.org.

Installation

bash
pip install skforecast-ai

The LLM layer is optional. To use it, install the extra ([bedrock] for AWS Bedrock):

bash
pip install "skforecast-ai[llm]"

Requires Python 3.10 or newer. More options in the installation guide; to install from source, see the Contribution Guide.

Quick example

python
from skforecast_ai import ForecastingAssistantfrom skforecast.datasets import load_demo_dataset
# Download demo dataset (monthly)data = load_demo_dataset(verbose=False)
# Profile the data, plan the model, generate the script and run it,# evaluated on the last 12 months. No LLM needed.assistant = ForecastingAssistant()result = assistant.forecast(data=data, target="y", steps=12, test_size=12)
result.predictions.head()#                 pred# 2007-07-01  0.851486# 2007-08-01  1.048000# 2007-09-01  0.998147# 2007-10-01  1.147577# 2007-11-01  1.110845
result.metrics#   series       MAE       MSE      MASE      MAPE# 0      y  0.078442  0.008933  0.802828  0.088608
print(result.code)  # the skforecast script that produced this result

That single call chose a ForecasterRecursive with a Ridge estimator, its lags and window features, and ran the script that result.code returns. result.profile and result.plan hold every decision and the rule behind it. Drop test_size to train on all the data and forecast the next 12 months.

Same pipeline from the terminal
bash
# End-to-end forecastskforecast-ai forecast data.csv --target y --date-column date --steps 12
# Only the standalone script, without running itskforecast-ai forecast-code data.csv --target y --date-column date --steps 12 --output forecast.py

The CLI covers the whole pipeline, including ask() and the prompts of refine_plan() and create_cv(). See Using the CLI.

Ask why (optional LLM)
python
# pip install "skforecast-ai[llm]"assistant = ForecastingAssistant(llm="openai:gpt-5.5")
answer = assistant.ask(    "Is the MASE good, and why was this estimator chosen?",    context=result,)

ask() reads the object you pass and explains it, grounded in the skforecast agent skills. It never changes the result. The dataset is never sent: a result shares only its own predictions and metrics, with a warning. Providers, credentials and local models are covered in Configuring the LLM.

From your coding agent (MCP server)

In Claude Code, install the server and its skill as a plugin:

text
/plugin marketplace add skforecast/skforecast-ai/plugin install skforecast-ai@skforecast-ai

Then ask in plain language: "Forecast the next 12 months of data/sales.csv and tell me how accurate it is." The agent brings the language model and calls skforecast-ai as tools; every decision still comes from the same deterministic rules, every result comes with the script that produced it, and responses never carry rows of your data. The setups for Cursor, VS Code, Codex and Claude Desktop are in MCP server for coding agents.

Features

A deterministic engine

  • Data profiling: frequency, missing values, exogenous and categorical variables, and the significant lags from the partial autocorrelation.
  • A plan with a rule for every decision: forecaster and estimator, lags, window and calendar features, prediction intervals, metric and cross-validation.
  • The code you see is the code that ran: forecast() and backtest() execute the same script that forecast_code() and backtest_code() return. Inspect it, version it or run it with plain skforecast.
  • Model selection with compare(): every candidate is backtested with the same data and cross-validation, and the ranking is a plain sort of the metric. For a single series, a seasonal naive baseline is ranked alongside them, so you also see whether a model beats the simplest reasonable forecast.
  • Reproducible: the same input always gives the same profile, plan, script and predictions.
  • Python or terminal: the CLI runs the same pipeline from a CSV file or URL.
  • Coding agents: an MCP server gives Claude Code, Cursor and other MCP clients the same pipeline as tools, with a skill that teaches them to use it. Responses never carry rows of your data.

The engine chooses among the forecasters of skforecast: recursive and direct, multi-series and multivariate, statistical (ARIMA) and foundation models.

An optional LLM layer

  • Explains a forecast, a backtest, a comparison, a plan or a script in plain language with ask(), or answers a general forecasting question.
  • Refines lags and window features from your domain knowledge with refine_plan(prompt=...).
  • Translates a deployment scenario into a backtesting strategy with create_cv(prompt=...).
  • Validated before it runs: every LLM output is checked by a Pydantic model; if it is not valid, you get the deterministic result and a warning.
  • Any provider through pydantic-ai: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Groq, AWS Bedrock, Ollama for local models, or any OpenAI-compatible endpoint.

Methods

All methods work without an LLM except ask(). A prompt is always explicit: nothing is sent to an LLM unless you ask for it.

MethodWhat it doesLLM
profile()Inspects the data and recommends a forecaster and an estimatorno
plan()Builds the plan: lags, window and calendar features, interval, metricno
refine_plan()Changes a plan with explicit overrides, or with a promptoptional
create_cv()Builds the cross-validation strategy, or translates a prompt into oneoptional
forecast(), forecast_code()Runs the forecast, or returns its script without running itno
backtest(), backtest_code()Runs the backtest, or returns its script without running itno
compare()Backtests several configurations and ranks themno
ask()Explains a profile, plan, script or result, or answers a questionrequired

How it works

skforecast-ai has two ways in, on the same engine. The fast path goes from data to a forecast or a backtest in one call. The step-by-step path returns each intermediate object (profile, plan, cross-validation) so you can inspect it, change it or refine it with the LLM before running anything. Both branch into forecasting and backtesting, compare() picks the best configuration from measured performance, and ask() explains any object along the way.

[How skforecast-ai works: the fast path runs profiling and planning inside forecast() or backtest(); the step-by-step path calls profile(), plan() and create_cv() so you can inspect each object. compare() ranks several configurations under the same cross-validation, and ask() explains any object at any moment.]

Read more in Agentic forecasting and Agentic forecasting step by step.

Documentation

The full documentation is available at https://ai.skforecast.org.

Documentation
Quick startInstall skforecast-ai, run your first forecast and ask the assistant
Agentic forecastingThe fast path: profile, forecast, backtest, compare and ask
Step by stepEvery intermediate object, and how to change it
Configuring the LLMProviders, credentials, local models and what is sent
Using the CLIThe same pipeline from the terminal
MCP server for coding agentsThe same pipeline as tools for Claude Code, Cursor and other MCP clients
API ReferenceForecastingAssistant, its results, schemas and the CLI
ReleasesWhat changed in each version

Part of the skforecast family

[Skforecast Docs] [GitHub] [Skforecast Studio]

  • skforecast: the forecasting library that runs every forecast of skforecast-ai. Machine learning, statistical and foundation models, backtesting and tuning.
  • Skforecast Studio: a no-code application to build forecasting models visually, which generates production-ready Python code.

Contributing

Bug reports, feature requests, code, tests and documentation are all welcome. Open an issue on GitHub Issues or read the Contribution Guide and the Code of Conduct to get started.

skforecast-ai is created and maintained by Joaquín Amat Rodrigo and Javier Escobar Ortiz, together with everyone who has contributed to it (about the project).

[skforecast-ai contributors]

Citation

If you use skforecast-ai in a scientific publication, please cite the version you used: each version has its own DOI and ready-made citations on Zenodo. To cite skforecast-ai in general, use the DOI that always resolves to the latest release.

APA:

Amat Rodrigo, J., & Escobar Ortiz, J. skforecast-ai [Computer software]. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21338159

BibTeX:

bibtex
@software{skforecast-ai,  author  = {Amat Rodrigo, Joaquin and Escobar Ortiz, Javier},  title   = {skforecast-ai},  license = {Apache-2.0},  url     = {https://ai.skforecast.org/},  doi     = {10.5281/zenodo.21338159}}

The citation metadata is also in CITATION.cff (GitHub's "Cite this repository" button).

Sponsorship and funding

skforecast-ai is built by the skforecast team. skforecast is free, open-source software supported by the Sovereign Tech Fund and by the organizations that sponsor it. If your company relies on skforecast or skforecast-ai, see Sponsorship and funding for sponsorship tiers, support agreements, feature sponsorship and training.

Individuals can support the project through Open Collective, Buy Me a Coffee, GitHub Sponsors (Joaquín Amat Rodrigo, Javier Escobar Ortiz) or PayPal.

[Support skforecast on Open Collective]  [Buy Me a Coffee]  [Sponsor skforecast on GitHub]

License

skforecast-ai software: Apache License 2.0. The underlying skforecast engine is distributed under its own BSD-3-Clause License.

skforecast-ai documentation: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

Trademark: The trademark skforecast is registered with the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO) under the application number 019109684. Unauthorized use of this trademark, its logo, or any associated visual identity elements is strictly prohibited without the express consent of the owner.

来源:README.md,提交 1fb1c08

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版本历史

1
  1. v0.4.0最新Oct 9, 2026