site.russianato由 russianato.site 发布官方发布者v1.7.0更新于 Oct 27, 2026
Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.
远程 MCP 服务器，提供带来源标注的俄罗斯—北约升级风险预测、情景与情报评估，每个数字都标明出处。
Web executable，通过 Streamable HTTP。 远程服务在工作区中配置后即可从网页运行时运行。
把这段提示词粘贴到 Claude Code、Codex、Cursor 等智能体，或 SourceWeft 对话中。智能体会读取该服务器的安装指南，先向你展示发布者、端点和登录方式，经你同意后再把它添加到你的客户端。密钥不会写进任何命令。
阅读 https://sourceweft.com/mcp/site.russianato%2Frisk-ladder/install.md，并按其中说明把这个 MCP 服务器接入我的客户端。修改任何配置之前，先告诉我它的发布者、端点和登录方式，等我确认。不要把 API 密钥写进命令或我会提交的文件；问我密钥应从哪里获取。把它添加到你客户端的 mcpServers 配置中。
{
"mcpServers": {
"russia-nato-risk-ladder": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
}
}Overview
Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).
langRisk ladder for a date and scenario
Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.
datelangscenariohybrid_pctwide_share_pctscenario_factorregional_share_pctForecast history
Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
tofromlangseriesIntelligence assessments
Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.
langlimitcountrydimensionSources
The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
langtypelimitquerycountryOther forecasts
Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.
langChangelog and corrections
Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
langtypelimitMethodology
Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.
lang已满足适用检查项的 83%
该评分衡量此收录条目的完整程度，依据注册中心条目、端点与公开来源计算得出。它不是对服务器本身的评价，也不表示服务器安全或当前可用：可连通性是带日期的检查结果，评分也不包含安装量或用户评价。
请声明包含 README 的 GitHub 仓库，或在 OAuth 受保护资源元数据中提供 resource_documentation。
托管服务按其提供方的条款使用，因此这里不要求许可证。此检查项不计入百分比。