Startup Valuation MCP Server

Compute expected value and probability-weighted outcomes for startup scenarios: discrete E[X], joint probability of sequential events, probability-weighted value, VC portfolio expected return, Poisson event probability, and continuous E[X] over a range. Method selects the formula. Use for probability-weighted central estimates; for named bull/base/bear tables or option pricing use valuation_advanced, and to discount cash flows use valuation_time_value. Parameters apply per method: expected_value_discrete and probability_weighted need outcomes + probabilities; portfolio_return needs weights + returns; poisson needs mean_events + k; expected_value_continuous needs lower + upper. outcomes and probabilities must be equal length, and the probabilities should sum to 1. Routing: use valuation_advanced method 'scenario_analysis' for named bull/base/bear scenario tables, and its black_scholes/binomial methods for option pricing; use this tool for arbitrary outcome lists and probability-weighted central estimates. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Discount, compound, and forecast value over time: single future value PV, net present value of a cash-flow stream, annuity present value, discounted cash flow with a Gordon terminal value, constant-rate compound growth of revenue or cash flow, and the implied compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Method selects the formula. Use to convert future cash to today's value, to value a full forecast with a terminal value (dcf), to project a revenue or cash-flow series forward, or to derive the growth rate implied by two values; get the discount rate from valuation_capm or valuation_international. Parameters apply per method: present_value needs future_value + rate + periods; npv needs cash_flows + rate; annuity needs payment + rate + periods; dcf needs cash_flows + rate (optional: terminal_growth); compound_growth needs starting_value + growth_rate + periods; cagr needs starting_value + ending_value + periods. growth_rate must be greater than -1, cagr requires starting_value > 0 and periods > 0, and dcf requires rate greater than terminal_growth. Not for option values (use valuation_advanced) or for expected values over outcomes (use valuation_probability). Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Estimate the cost of capital: standard CAPM, startup-adjusted CAPM with size and illiquidity premiums, portfolio beta from weighted asset betas, and WACC blending after-tax cost of equity and debt. Method selects the formula. Use to derive the discount rate that feeds valuation_time_value and DCF models; for cross-border rates add valuation_international. Parameters apply per method: capm needs risk_free_rate + beta + market_return; startup_capm adds size_premium and liquidity_premium; portfolio_beta needs weights + betas, which must be equal length; wacc needs equity_value + debt_value + cost_of_equity + cost_of_debt + tax_rate. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

The textbook's pre-revenue methods: Scorecard, Berkus, Risk-Factor Summation, VC Method (post- and pre-money), and exit terminal value. Use these first for early-stage startups. Method selects the formula, and each method names its own parameters: scorecard needs average_valuation + weights + scores; berkus takes five factor awards; risk_factor needs base_valuation + risk_ratings; vc_post_money needs terminal_value + target_return; vc_pre_money needs post_money + investment; terminal_value needs projected_revenue + multiple; triangulated needs the scorecard inputs plus terminal_value/target_return/investment. Routing: for SAFEs, tokens, ESG, network effects, or data-moat methods use valuation_emerging; for options or bull/base/bear scenario tables use valuation_advanced; for public-comparable multiples use valuation_comparables. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Advanced techniques: Black-Scholes call value, binomial-tree option value, and scenario analysis. Method selects the technique. For a quick expected value over arbitrary outcome lists, prefer valuation_probability with method 'probability_weighted'; scenario_analysis here is for explicit named bull/base/bear scenario tables. Parameters apply per method: black_scholes and binomial need underlying + strike + risk_free_rate + volatility + time_to_maturity (binomial adds steps); scenario_analysis needs scenarios. Not for plain discounted cash flow — for that use valuation_time_value. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Market multiples from comparables: P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, and a regression-adjusted multiple. Method selects the ratio. Use when public comparables exist; for pre-revenue or private startups use valuation_core. Parameters apply per method: pe_ratio needs market_cap + net_income; ps_ratio needs market_cap + revenue; ev_ebitda needs enterprise_value + ebitda; ev_revenue needs enterprise_value + revenue; regression_multiple needs intercept + growth_rate + growth_coefficient (plus optional maturity/stage/geography terms). Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

SaaS unit economics and valuation: LTV, CAC, MRR, ARR, net revenue retention, magic number, Rule of 40, CAC payback, and ARR revenue-multiple valuation. Method selects the metric. Use for subscription software; for marketplace GMV metrics use valuation_marketplace and for payments/lending use valuation_fintech. Parameters apply per method: ltv needs arpu + gross_margin + churn_rate; cac needs sales_marketing_expense + new_customers; arr needs subscription_values; nrr needs starting_revenue + ending_revenue; revenue_multiple needs arr + revenue_multiple. Not for company-level pre-revenue value — for that use valuation_core. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Marketplace health and valuation: take rate, GMV revenue-multiple valuation, buyer retention, and network density. Method selects the metric. Use for two-sided transaction marketplaces; for subscription software use valuation_saas. Parameters apply per method: take_rate needs revenue + gmv; gmv_multiple needs gmv + multiple; buyer_retention needs buyers_period_1 + buyers_repeat; network_density needs active_buyers + active_sellers + total_users. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Value and size fintech business models: payment revenue, lending valuation, payment-processor DCF, and neobank customer-based valuation. Method selects the model. Use for payments, lending, and neobanks; for SaaS-style unit economics use valuation_saas. Parameters apply per method: payment_revenue needs transaction_volume + take_rate; lending needs loan_book + roe + pe_multiple; payment_processor adds growth_rate + discount_rate + terminal_multiple; neobank needs customers + arpu + gross_margin + churn_rate + pe_multiple. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Risk-adjusted biotech valuation: peak sales, decision-tree expected value, and full pipeline rNPV across drugs. Method selects the model. Use for pharma/drug pipelines; for hardware or deep tech use valuation_hardware. Parameters apply per method: peak_sales needs patient_population + penetration + price; decision_tree needs probabilities + terminal_value; pipeline needs drugs + discount_rate. Not for hardware or deep tech — for that use valuation_hardware. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Hardware and deep-tech valuation: TRL-risk-adjusted valuation, gross margin, and break-even volume. Method selects the metric. Use for hardware and deep tech with technology-readiness risk; for drug pipelines use valuation_biotech. Parameters apply per method: trl needs market_size + market_share + margin + multiple + trl_discount; gross_margin needs asp + variable_cost; break_even_volume needs fixed_costs + asp + variable_cost. Not for drug pipelines — for those use valuation_biotech. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Cross-border adjustments: purchasing-power parity, country risk premium, and international CAPM. Method selects the adjustment. Use for cross-border cash flows and country risk; pair with valuation_capm and valuation_time_value. Parameters apply per method: ppp needs spot_rate + inflation_foreign + inflation_domestic; country_risk_premium needs sovereign_yield + us_treasury_yield; intl_capm needs risk_free_rate + beta + mrp + crp. Not for the domestic cost of equity — for that use valuation_capm. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Allocate value across stakeholders and equity classes: single-round dilution, OPM common stock, PWERM, liquidation value, M&A synergy, employee-option values, vesting adjustment, cash-vs-equity break-even, and asset-based loan capacity. Method selects the model. Use only after the company-level value is known (from valuation_core, valuation_saas, or valuation_comparables) to split that value across the cap table; for the company value itself do not use this tool. Parameters apply per method: dilution needs ownership_before + investment + post_money; opm needs enterprise_value + liquidation_pref + time_to_exit + volatility; pwerm and employee_option need scenarios; liquidation needs assets + recovery_rates; risk_adjusted_synergy needs revenue_synergies + cost_synergies; vesting_adjusted needs total_value + vested_fraction; max_asset_loan takes collateral values. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.

Modern and alternative valuation: SAFE conversion (discount, cap, expected value), token valuation (equation of exchange, NVT), ESG adjustments (rate, premium, discount), Metcalfe network value, data-moat value, and remote-first premium/NPV. Method selects the model. Use for SAFEs, tokens, ESG, network effects, data moats, and remote-first adjustments; for classic pre-revenue methods use valuation_core. Parameters apply per method: safe_discount needs series_a_price + discount; safe_cap needs cap + series_a_price; safe_expected needs investment + cap + discount + series_a_valuation + series_a_price; token_value needs transaction_volume + price_per_tx + velocity + supply; metcalfe needs n; esg_* need base_valuation + a score; data_moat needs data_volume + data_uniqueness + monetization_rate + competitive_advantage_years. Routing: for classic pre-revenue methods (Scorecard, Berkus, Risk-Factor Summation, VC Method) use valuation_core; for options or scenario tables use valuation_advanced; for public-comparable multiples use valuation_comparables. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.