Sardine: Kalshi crypto settlement history

info.sardine由 sardine.info 發布官方發布者v0.1.1更新於 Oct 26, 2026

How often Kalshi BTC/ETH/XRP contracts settled YES, counted not forecast, with a public record

已驗證Streamable HTTP可網頁執行金融資料與分析

概覽

AI 產生的概覽

Sardine 提供 Kalshi 加密漲跌合約的歷史結算頻率,並附即時看板、費率表、準確率紀錄與規則回測。

可以做什麼
  • 列出涵蓋的 Kalshi 系列及目前是否提供服務,並給出校準落差
  • 依履約價、剩餘時間與方向查詢單一合約的歷史結算率,可選擇附上 Kalshi 手續費與含費總價
  • 查看目前開放合約的即時看板,將 Kalshi 報價與 Sardine 的歷史計數並列
  • 讀取某一系列依距履約價距離與剩餘時間分桶的完整費率表
  • 核對 Sardine 自身公布數字與實際結算的準確率紀錄
  • 列出可下載的 CSV 歷史檔案,並在逐秒記錄的報價上回測交易規則
適用情境
適合在分析 Kalshi 15 分鐘及每小時加密漲跌合約時,以統計出的歷史頻率而非預測來判斷,或查核這類數字的準確度,以及某條規則在扣除手續費後的表現。
執行需求
可作為遠端端點使用,也可透過 PyPI 套件以 stdio 在本機執行。未宣告需要身分驗證;選用的免費 API 金鑰透過 SARDINE_API_KEY 提供以放寬速率限制。需要能連線至該服務的網路。
安裝前請注意
這些數字是歷史頻率,並非預測或交易建議,服務要求呈現時附上樣本數。回測依據已記錄的報價,不代表未來結果。選用的 API 金鑰屬於機密,應透過 SARDINE_API_KEY 提供。使用資料集時需標註 Sardine 出處。

安裝

在 SourceWeft 中

  1. 開啟 儀表板中的 Sardine: Kalshi crypto settlement history,將其新增到工作區。
  2. 為需要使用其工具的對話啟用該服務。

Web executable,透過 Streamable HTTP。 遠端服務在工作區中設定後即可從網頁執行環境執行。

交給代理程式安裝

把這段提示詞貼上到 Claude Code、Codex、Cursor 等代理程式,或 SourceWeft 對話中。代理程式會讀取該伺服器的安裝指南,先向你展示發布者、端點和登入方式,經你同意後再把它新增到你的客戶端。金鑰不會寫進任何命令。

閱讀 https://sourceweft.com/mcp/info.sardine%2Fsardine/install.md,並按其中說明把這個 MCP 伺服器接入我的客戶端。修改任何設定之前,先告訴我它的發布者、端點和登入方式,等我確認。不要把 API 金鑰寫進命令或我會提交的檔案;問我金鑰應從哪裡取得。

檢視代理程式所依據的安裝指南

其他 MCP 客戶端

把它新增到你客戶端的 mcpServers 設定中。

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sardine-kalshi-crypto-settlement-history": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://sardine.info/mcp"
    }
  }
}

工具

7

list_markets

List the Kalshi series Sardine covers, and whether each is currently served. Each entry gives the Sardine key (e.g. "BTC-15M"), the Kalshi series ticker, the window length, and the latest calibration check: the largest gap, in probability points, between what Sardine published and what then settled.

無需輸入參數。

get_settlement_rate

How often has a contract like this one settled in favour of `side`? Uses the asset's live spot price. Give the contract's strike (target price), the minutes left until it settles, and optionally Kalshi's ask in dollars (0.01-0.99) to get Kalshi's fee and all-in price on the same line. Returns the historical settlement rate, its 95% interval and the number of past windows counted. A small `windows_counted` means a weak answer.

輸入參數sideasset必填strike必填kalshi_askminutes_left必填window_minutes必填

get_live_board

Open Kalshi contracts right now, each with Kalshi's price beside Sardine's count. Optionally filter to one market. Each row has the contract, Kalshi's ask and fee, the historical settlement rate with its interval and sample size, and a plain-English sentence describing the comparison.

輸入參數limitmarket

get_rate_table

The full lookup table behind every Sardine number for one series. Each row is a (distance-from-strike, time-left) bucket: distance in volatility units, seconds left, the share that settled YES, its 95% interval, and the number of independent windows counted.

輸入參數assetwindow_minutes

get_track_record

How accurate Sardine's published numbers have been, scored against settlements. For each series and probability bucket: what Sardine said, what actually settled, and the miss in points. Use this before relying on any number.

無需輸入參數。

list_datasets

Downloadable CSV history files, with row counts, date ranges and URLs. Files open directly in Excel, pandas or any CSV reader. Credit "Sardine (sardine.info)" when you use them.

無需輸入參數。

backtest_rule

Would this rule have made money? Replays recorded Kalshi quotes, second by second. Describe a rule for Kalshi's 15-minute crypto up/down contracts: which side to buy, when (minutes left), at what prices (cents), and optionally only when Sardine's history beats Kalshi's ask plus fee by `min_gap_cents` (side BEST picks whichever side has the larger gap). Sardine replays its per-second recordings of Kalshi's order book: one trade per window, a limit order at the ask landing after `latency_seconds`, filled only up to the size resting there, Kalshi's real fee, and Kalshi's official settlement. Returns profit per contract after fees with a 95% interval, win rate, fill behaviour, a zero-latency comparison (exposes stale-quote illusions), a first-half/second-half stability check, breakdowns by minutes left and price, and warnings. Results only; no raw data. Dates are UTC YYYY-MM-DD. Present results as what happened historically, never as a forecast.

輸入參數sidemarketend_datecontractsstart_datemax_gap_centsmin_gap_centslatency_secondsmax_price_centsmin_price_centsmax_minutes_leftmin_minutes_left

版本歷史

1
  1. v0.1.1最新Oct 26, 2026

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