Sports Probabilities MCP

io.github.commodus67由 GitHub 帳號 commodus67 發布v0.0.12更新於 Oct 24, 2026

Monte Carlo NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and soccer odds, plus model-vs-market edge from live prices

已驗證Streamable HTTP可網頁執行金融資料與分析

概覽

AI 產生的概覽

遠端 MCP 伺服器，為 NFL、MLB、NHL、NBA 與 17 個足球聯賽提供蒙地卡羅賽季機率，並與 Kalshi 即時價格比較模型與市場的落差。

可以做什麼
  • 取得單一球隊的完整機率集合、目前戰績、預測排名與名次
  • 依機率而非積分或戰績為整個聯盟排名
  • 將模型機率與 Kalshi 即時價格對比，給出優勢、扣費後期望值與上限為四分之一凱利的投注額
  • 在自訂假設下重新執行模擬並分析機率變動
  • 查看某支球隊機率在整個賽季中的歷史變化
適用情境
當你需要某支球隊或某個聯盟的季後賽、奪冠、資格賽或降級機率的實際計算結果，而不是模型自行估算時；或想了解模擬結果與即時預測市場價格的差異時使用。
執行需求
遠端 streamable HTTP 端點，無需本機安裝。需要 Apify 帳號：支援 OAuth 的用戶端可直接登入，其他用戶端需在 Authorization 標頭以 bearer 形式提供 Apify API 權杖。依每次機率讀取透過 Apify 計費。
安裝前請注意
需要 Apify API 權杖或 Apify 帳號登入，且按事件計費，每 1,000 次機率讀取起價 50 美元。市場對比會讀取 Kalshi 即時價格並給出建議投注額，但伺服器聲明其僅為統計結果，不構成投注建議。NHL 與 NBA 在球隊打滿十場前不提供價值判斷與投注額。

安裝

在 SourceWeft 中

  1. 開啟 儀表板中的 Sports Probabilities MCP，將其新增到工作區。
  2. 連接 Authorization token 憑證。它們會被私密儲存，絕不會在公開頁面上展示。
  3. 為需要使用其工具的對話啟用該服務。

Web executable，透過 Streamable HTTP。 遠端服務在工作區中設定後即可從網頁執行環境執行。

交給代理程式安裝

把這段提示詞貼上到 Claude Code、Codex、Cursor 等代理程式，或 SourceWeft 對話中。代理程式會讀取該伺服器的安裝指南，先向你展示發布者、端點和登入方式，經你同意後再把它新增到你的客戶端。金鑰不會寫進任何命令。

閱讀 https://sourceweft.com/mcp/io.github.commodus67%2Fsports-probabilities-mcp/install.md，並按其中說明把這個 MCP 伺服器接入我的客戶端。修改任何設定之前，先告訴我它的發布者、端點和登入方式，等我確認。不要把 API 金鑰寫進命令或我會提交的檔案；問我金鑰應從哪裡取得。

檢視代理程式所依據的安裝指南

其他 MCP 客戶端

把它新增到你客戶端的 mcpServers 設定中。

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sports-probabilities": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp",
      "headers": {
        "Authorization": "Bearer <YOUR_TOKEN>"
      }
    }
  }
}

README

Sports Probabilities MCP

An MCP server that gives AI assistants Monte Carlo probabilities for the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and 17 soccer leagues, plus a model-versus-market comparison against live Kalshi prices.

Ask in plain language from Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor and get a computed number back — not an estimate the model made up.

The server runs on Apify: https://apify.com/commodus67/sports-probabilities-mcp

This repository holds the documentation and the registry manifest (server.json). The implementation lives in the Actor above.

Coverage

SportTeamsProbabilities
NFLAll 32Playoffs, division, wild card, No. 1 seed
MLBAll 30Postseason, division, wild card, top seed
NHLAll 32Playoffs, division, wild card, conference top seed, Presidents' Trophy
NBAAll 30Playoffs, play-in, top six, division, best record, conference finals, conference title, championship
Soccer17 leaguesTitle, top four, continental qualification, playoff, relegation

Soccer leagues: Premier League, EFL Championship, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Süper Lig, Belgian Pro League, Scottish Premiership, Brasileirão, Liga MX, Liga Profesional (Argentina), Primera A (Colombia), MLS, Austrian Bundesliga. Other ESPN soccer slugs are supported.

Tools

ToolPurpose
get_team_probabilitiesOne team's full probability set, current record, projected finish and ranking
get_league_probabilitiesA whole league ranked by probability rather than by points or record
compare_model_vs_marketModel against live Kalshi prices: edge, expected value after fees, fractional Kelly stake
run_scenarioA fresh simulation under custom model assumptions, with movement analysis
get_probability_historyHow a team's probability moved across the season, from archived runs

Model vs market

compare_model_vs_market reads live Kalshi playoff contracts for all four North American leagues — KXNFLPLAYOFF, KXMLBPLAYOFFS, KXNHLPLAYOFF and KXNBAPLAYOFF — and returns the gap between model and market, the better side of each contract, expected value after the taker fee and a capped quarter-Kelly stake.

For the NHL and NBA, value calls and stakes stay off until teams have played ten games, as in the underlying Actors; edges are still reported in full. For soccer, or to compare against a bookmaker, pass your own prices in marketProbabilities.

Connect

Streamable HTTP transport, stateless. Endpoint:

https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp

Clients that support OAuth (Claude custom connectors, for example) sign in with an Apify account — no token to paste. Other clients send an Apify API token as a bearer token:

json
{  "mcpServers": {    "sports-probabilities": {      "url": "https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp",      "headers": {        "Authorization": "Bearer YOUR_APIFY_API_TOKEN"      }    }  }}

How it works

Each answer comes from one of five published Monte Carlo Actors — NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and soccer — that take live standings and the remaining schedule, play out the rest of the season thousands of times, and count how often each outcome happens. The MCP server calls those Actors and caches the result — it does not reimplement the simulation, so an answer here never disagrees with the same query made directly against the API.

Every response carries the date and the source of the run it came from.

Pricing

Pay per event, billed through Apify. From $50.00 per 1,000 probability reads. Full pricing on the Actor page.

Note

This is statistics and simulation. It is not betting advice, and it does not produce picks.

來源：README.md，提交 f6b2e52

工具

0
該伺服器需要 API 金鑰等憑證，因此 SourceWeft 無法在沒有憑證的情況下讀取其工具，也未收錄。

版本歷史

1
  1. v0.0.12最新Sep 16, 2026

評分

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