site.russianato由 russianato.site 發布官方發布者v1.7.0更新於 Oct 27, 2026
Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.
遠端 MCP 伺服器，提供附來源標註的俄羅斯—北約升高風險預測、情境與情報評估，每個數字都標明出處。
Web executable，透過 Streamable HTTP。 遠端服務在工作區中設定後即可從網頁執行環境執行。
把這段提示詞貼上到 Claude Code、Codex、Cursor 等代理程式，或 SourceWeft 對話中。代理程式會讀取該伺服器的安裝指南，先向你展示發布者、端點和登入方式，經你同意後再把它新增到你的客戶端。金鑰不會寫進任何命令。
閱讀 https://sourceweft.com/mcp/site.russianato%2Frisk-ladder/install.md，並按其中說明把這個 MCP 伺服器接入我的客戶端。修改任何設定之前，先告訴我它的發布者、端點和登入方式，等我確認。不要把 API 金鑰寫進命令或我會提交的檔案；問我金鑰應從哪裡取得。把它新增到你客戶端的 mcpServers 設定中。
{
"mcpServers": {
"russia-nato-risk-ladder": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
}
}
}Overview
Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).
langRisk ladder for a date and scenario
Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.
datelangscenariohybrid_pctwide_share_pctscenario_factorregional_share_pctForecast history
Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
tofromlangseriesIntelligence assessments
Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.
langlimitcountrydimensionSources
The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
langtypelimitquerycountryOther forecasts
Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.
langChangelog and corrections
Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
langtypelimitMethodology
Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.
lang已滿足適用檢查項的 83%
該評分衡量此收錄條目的完整程度，依據註冊中心條目、端點與公開來源計算得出。它不是對伺服器本身的評價，也不表示伺服器安全或目前可用：可連通性是帶日期的檢查結果，評分也不包含安裝量或使用者評價。
請宣告包含 README 的 GitHub 儲存庫，或在 OAuth 受保護資源後設資料中提供 resource_documentation。
託管服務按其提供方的條款使用，因此這裡不要求授權條款。此檢查項不計入百分比。