Bigdata Post-IPO Day 179 — 180-Day Lock-Up Expiry
The standard 180-day lock-up is about to release insider, employee, and pre-IPO investor shares. Run this note around day 179 to size the potential supply overhang and how the stock is set up into the unlock. Use Bigdata.com plugin tools plus web search.
Read references/post-ipo-common.md first — scope rules, data foundation, reference math, and the verify checklist apply in full.
Confirm the terms from the filing. Lock-up duration, exact expiry date, covered holders, the share count released, and any early-release provisions (price or time triggers, underwriter waivers) are issuer-specific. Pull them from the prospectus and any subsequent 8-K/424B — do not assume a generic 180 days for every holder.
Use this skill when the first lock-up tranche is about to expire. Not this skill when:
What this note answers
- How many shares unlock, and how much does free float expand?
- How large is the overhang relative to the stock's capacity to absorb it (days-to-trade)?
- Are insiders and VCs signaling intent to sell (secondary filings, 10b5-1 plans)?
- How has positioning — short interest, borrow, options skew — set up into the date?
Plugin tool calls
Required on every call: pass plugin_slug: "bigdata-post-ipo-day179" in the request parameters of every Bigdata.com plugin tool call made while running this skill. The value is always the skill name, bigdata-post-ipo-day179, regardless of the company or query.
Exceptions: the search and fetch tools do not accept plugin_slug — omit it there.
Workflow
Step 1 — Lock-up terms recap (cite the filing)
Expiry date, who is locked (founders, employees, pre-IPO VC/PE, strategic holders), the share count releasing, and any tiered or early-release provisions. Distinguish this 180-day tranche from a later founder tranche if the deal staggered its lock-ups.
Step 2 — Float and overhang math (show inputs)
- Current free float vs post-expiry float = current float + newly unlocked shares. Express the increase as a multiple of current float and as a % of shares outstanding.
- Days-to-trade = newly unlocked shares / ADV — the headline overhang measure.
Step 3 — Selling-intention signals
Search for disclosed secondary offerings, 10b5-1 trading plans, prior insider sales, and management or VC commentary. VC funds near end-of-life are more likely distributors than long-horizon founders.
Step 4 — Positioning into the event
Short interest and days-to-cover, borrow availability and cost, options skew, and recent price action. Heavy pre-positioning can mean the overhang is already partly discounted.
Step 5 — Historical lock-up effect
Cite the typical pattern — often a modest negative drift into and just after expiry, scaled by the float increase, insider ownership, and post-IPO performance — plus 1–2 recent analogs.
Step 6 — Two-sided read and watch points
Bear: dilution of tradable supply, insider distribution. Bull: overhang already priced, expiry as a clearing event, float increase aiding index eligibility and liquidity. Watch points: exact expiry date, any early release or waiver, follow-on secondary, next earnings.
Output
Follow assets/report-template.md.
- Length: 4–7 pages — this is a single-catalyst note.
- Cover line: company name, "Post-IPO — 180-Day Lock-Up Expiry", date, "Prepared with Claude".
- Inline citations
[1],[2]after every sourced claim, hyperlinked to the document URL. Brand Bigdata.com content exactly "Bigdata.com". - Full Sources section, then the Powered by Bigdata.com line and Disclaimer, verbatim.
- Suggested filename:
Post_IPO_Day179_LockUp_<Company>_<YYYY-MM-DD>in the user's requested format.
Quality bar
Run the verify checklist in references/post-ipo-common.md before delivering. In particular:
- Lock-up terms cited to the filing, including early-release provisions — never assumed
- Float and overhang math shown with its inputs; float % + locked % reconcile to shares outstanding
- Days-to-trade computed against a stated ADV
- Both sides framed — the bull read on a clearing event is not optional
- No recommendation language, no price target, no conviction rating