Bigdata Post-IPO Day 365 — Founder Lock-Up & Float Expansion
A later 366-day lock-up tranche releases founder and significant-investor shares, potentially expanding free float toward 15–20%. Run this note around day 365 to prepare for the supply increase and the offsetting mechanical demand. Use Bigdata.com plugin tools plus web search.
Read references/post-ipo-common.md first — scope rules, data foundation, reference math, and the verify checklist apply in full.
Confirm the staggered structure from the filing. Multi-tranche lock-ups, exactly which holders the 366-day tranche covers, the share count, and dual-class voting implications are issuer-specific. Pull them from the prospectus and subsequent filings — do not assume a standard structure.
Use this skill when the second, founder-level tranche is about to expire. Not this skill when:
What this note answers
- How far does free float expand (toward 15–20%?), and how many founder/investor shares become eligible?
- Does float-adjusted index re-weighting create mechanical buying that absorbs some of the new supply?
- How likely are founders and long-horizon investors to actually sell, versus diversify gradually?
- Does the founder retain control through super-voting shares even after selling economic stake?
Plugin tool calls
Required on every call: pass plugin_slug: "bigdata-post-ipo-day365" in the request parameters of every Bigdata.com plugin tool call made while running this skill. The value is always the skill name, bigdata-post-ipo-day365, regardless of the company or query.
Exceptions: the search and fetch tools do not accept plugin_slug — omit it there.
Workflow
Step 1 — Lock-up structure recap (cite the filing)
The 366-day tranche: covered holders (founders, major VC/PE, strategic), the share count releasing, and how it stacks on the earlier 180-day unlock. Note any dual-class or super-voting structure.
Step 2 — Float expansion math (show inputs)
- Projected post-expiry float = current float + newly eligible founder/investor shares. Express as a % of shares outstanding and check it against the 15–20% expectation.
- Days-to-trade = newly eligible shares / ADV. Treat this as a ceiling — founders rarely sell all at once.
Step 3 — The offsetting demand: float-adjusted index reweighting
Many indices weight by free-float market cap, so a float increase raises the company's float-adjusted weight and triggers mechanical passive buying at the next reweight. Estimate the weight change and implied passive demand — show the math, label it an estimate — and net it against the new supply.
Step 4 — Realistic supply assessment
Founders typically diversify gradually, often via 10b5-1 plans, rather than dump. End-of-life VC funds may distribute to LPs instead. Search for disclosed plans, prior selling behavior, and management commentary.
Step 5 — Governance angle
Whether founders retain voting control via super-voting shares after selling economic stake, and what that means for the alignment narrative.
Step 6 — Two-sided read and watch points
Bear: meaningful new founder and VC supply, plus the signaling effect. Bull: float increase improves liquidity, index weight, and institutional accessibility; passive demand offsets supply. Watch points: exact expiry date, index reweight date, disclosed sale plans, next earnings.
Output
Follow assets/report-template.md.
- Length: 4–7 pages — this is a single-catalyst note.
- Cover line: company name, "Post-IPO — Founder Lock-Up & Float Expansion", date, "Prepared with Claude".
- Inline citations
[1],[2]after every sourced claim, hyperlinked to the document URL. Brand Bigdata.com content exactly "Bigdata.com". - Full Sources section, then the Powered by Bigdata.com line and Disclaimer, verbatim.
- Suggested filename:
Post_IPO_Day365_FounderLockUp_<Company>_<YYYY-MM-DD>in the user's requested format.
Quality bar
Run the verify checklist in references/post-ipo-common.md before delivering. In particular:
- Staggered lock-up structure cited to the filing — never assumed
- Supply and index-demand both quantified, with arithmetic shown, then netted against each other
- Days-to-trade presented as a ceiling, not a forecast
- Governance and voting control addressed explicitly where a dual-class structure exists
- No recommendation language, no price target, no conviction rating