Dcf Valuation

作者 claude-office-skills9c4c7d5cd281MIT499 個星標收錄於 2026年10月8日更新於 2026年10月8日儲存庫8 個月前更新

Build Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation models. Calculate intrinsic value with customizable assumptions. Generate professional valuation reports.

僅含說明Business & Finance

AI 產生的概覽

建立現金流量折現（DCF）估值模型，涵蓋 WACC、終值與敏感度分析，並產出結構化估值報告。

功能: 引導使用者提供歷史財務資料與假設，接著給出 DCF 架構，包含無槓桿自由現金流量、以 CAPM 計算的 WACC、以戈登成長或退出倍數法估算終值，以及折現求得每股權益價值。它規定了固定的 Markdown 報告格式，包括執行摘要、假設、現金流量預測、估值彙總、敏感度表格與風險。它也說明限制，例如無法保證預測準確性，亦不提供投資建議。
適用情境: 適用於依財務資料與既定假設估算公司內在價值，或需要為分析、教學目的撰寫結構化 DCF 報告的情境。不適合早期尚未獲利的公司，也不能取代專業盡職調查。
執行需求: 僅為說明文件，沒有隨附指令碼。前置資料列出 office-mcp 伺服器與 read_xlsx、create_xlsx、apply_formula、create_chart 工具，因此資料輸入與輸出預期需要試算表存取能力。使用者須提供歷史財務資料、流通在外股數與假設；目前股價為選填。

DCF Valuation Skill

Overview

I help you build Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models to estimate the intrinsic value of companies. DCF is the gold standard for fundamental valuation used by investment banks, hedge funds, and professional investors.

What I can do:

Build complete DCF models from financial data
Calculate WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
Project future free cash flows
Estimate terminal value (Gordon Growth or Exit Multiple)
Run sensitivity analysis on key assumptions
Generate professional valuation summaries

What I cannot do:

Guarantee accuracy of projections
Account for unpredictable future events
Provide investment recommendations
Replace professional financial due diligence

How to Use Me

Step 1: Provide Financial Data

I need:

Historical financials (3-5 years of revenue, EBITDA, capex, D&A)
Current shares outstanding
Current stock price (optional, for comparison)
Industry/sector context

Step 2: Set Assumptions

Key assumptions to specify (or I'll use industry defaults):

Revenue growth rates (Year 1-5)
EBITDA margin trajectory
Capex as % of revenue
Working capital changes
Terminal growth rate
Discount rate (WACC)

Step 3: Choose Model Type

Standard DCF: 5-year projection + terminal value
Two-Stage DCF: High growth + stable growth phases
Three-Stage DCF: Growth, transition, maturity phases

DCF Model Framework

Step 1: Project Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (UFCF) =    EBIT × (1 - Tax Rate)  + Depreciation & Amortization  - Capital Expenditures  - Change in Net Working Capital

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (UFCF) =    EBIT × (1 - Tax Rate)  + Depreciation & Amortization  - Capital Expenditures  - Change in Net Working Capital

Step 2: Calculate WACC

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1 - Tc))
Where:E = Market value of equityD = Market value of debtV = E + D (total value)Re = Cost of equity (CAPM: Rf + β × Market Risk Premium)Rd = Cost of debtTc = Corporate tax rate

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1 - Tc))
Where:E = Market value of equityD = Market value of debtV = E + D (total value)Re = Cost of equity (CAPM: Rf + β × Market Risk Premium)Rd = Cost of debtTc = Corporate tax rate

CAPM Formula for Cost of Equity

Re = Rf + β × (Rm - Rf)
Where:Rf = Risk-free rate (10-year Treasury)β = Stock beta (systematic risk)Rm - Rf = Equity risk premium (typically 5-6%)

Re = Rf + β × (Rm - Rf)
Where:Rf = Risk-free rate (10-year Treasury)β = Stock beta (systematic risk)Rm - Rf = Equity risk premium (typically 5-6%)

Step 3: Calculate Terminal Value

Method A: Gordon Growth Model

Terminal Value = FCF(n+1) / (WACC - g)
Where:FCF(n+1) = Final year FCF × (1 + g)g = Terminal growth rate (typically 2-3%, ≤ GDP growth)

Terminal Value = FCF(n+1) / (WACC - g)
Where:FCF(n+1) = Final year FCF × (1 + g)g = Terminal growth rate (typically 2-3%, ≤ GDP growth)

Method B: Exit Multiple

Terminal Value = EBITDA(n) × Exit Multiple
Common multiples by sector:- Technology: 10-15x- Healthcare: 8-12x- Consumer: 6-10x- Industrial: 5-8x

Terminal Value = EBITDA(n) × Exit Multiple
Common multiples by sector:- Technology: 10-15x- Healthcare: 8-12x- Consumer: 6-10x- Industrial: 5-8x

Step 4: Discount to Present Value

Enterprise Value = Σ [FCF(t) / (1 + WACC)^t] + [TV / (1 + WACC)^n]
Equity Value = Enterprise Value - Net Debt + Cash
Intrinsic Value per Share = Equity Value / Shares Outstanding

Enterprise Value = Σ [FCF(t) / (1 + WACC)^t] + [TV / (1 + WACC)^n]
Equity Value = Enterprise Value - Net Debt + Cash
Intrinsic Value per Share = Equity Value / Shares Outstanding

Output Format

markdown

# DCF Valuation Model: [Company Name]
**Valuation Date**: [Date]**Analyst**: AI-Generated**Model Type**: [Standard/Two-Stage/Three-Stage]
---
## Executive Summary
| Metric | Value ||--------|-------|| **Intrinsic Value per Share** | $XX.XX || **Current Market Price** | $XX.XX || **Upside/Downside** | +/-XX% || **Implied Recommendation** | [Undervalued/Fair/Overvalued] |
---
## Key Assumptions
### Revenue Projections| Year | Revenue ($M) | Growth % ||------|-------------|----------|| Base (Current) | X,XXX | - || Year 1 | X,XXX | XX% || Year 2 | X,XXX | XX% || Year 3 | X,XXX | XX% || Year 4 | X,XXX | XX% || Year 5 | X,XXX | XX% |
### Margin Assumptions| Metric | Year 1 | Year 5 | Rationale ||--------|--------|--------|-----------|| EBITDA Margin | XX% | XX% | [Reason] || Capex/Revenue | XX% | XX% | [Reason] || D&A/Revenue | XX% | XX% | [Reason] |
### WACC Calculation| Component | Value | Source/Assumption ||-----------|-------|-------------------|| Risk-free Rate | X.X% | 10-Year Treasury || Beta | X.XX | Bloomberg/Calculated || Equity Risk Premium | X.X% | Historical average || Cost of Equity | XX.X% | CAPM || Cost of Debt | X.X% | Credit spread || Tax Rate | XX% | Effective rate || Debt/Total Capital | XX% | Current structure || **WACC** | **X.X%** | |
### Terminal Value| Method | Value ($M) | As % of EV ||--------|-----------|------------|| Gordon Growth (g=X%) | X,XXX | XX% || Exit Multiple (Xx EBITDA) | X,XXX | XX% || **Selected** | **X,XXX** | **XX%** |
---
## Free Cash Flow Projections
| ($M) | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Terminal ||------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|----------|| Revenue | | | | | | || EBITDA | | | | | | || (-) D&A | | | | | | || EBIT | | | | | | || (-) Taxes | | | | | | || NOPAT | | | | | | || (+) D&A | | | | | | || (-) Capex | | | | | | || (-) ΔNWC | | | | | | || **UFCF** | | | | | | |
---
## Valuation Summary
| Component | Value ($M) ||-----------|-----------|| PV of Projected FCFs | X,XXX || PV of Terminal Value | X,XXX || **Enterprise Value** | **X,XXX** || (-) Net Debt | (X,XXX) || (+) Cash | X,XXX || **Equity Value** | **X,XXX** || Shares Outstanding | XXX M || **Value per Share** | **$XX.XX** |
---
## Sensitivity Analysis
### WACC vs Terminal Growth Rate
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% ||--------------|------|------|------|------|| 8.0% | $XX | $XX | $XX | $XX || 8.5% | $XX | $XX | $XX | $XX || 9.0% | $XX | $XX | **$XX** | $XX || 9.5% | $XX | $XX | $XX | $XX || 10.0% | $XX | $XX | $XX | $XX |
### Key Drivers Impact
| Assumption Change | Impact on Value ||-------------------|-----------------|| WACC +1% | -XX% || Terminal Growth +0.5% | +XX% || Revenue CAGR +2% | +XX% || EBITDA Margin +2% | +XX% |
---
## Risks to Valuation
1. **Model Risk**: DCF highly sensitive to WACC and terminal growth assumptions2. **Execution Risk**: Projected growth may not materialize3. **Market Risk**: Multiple compression in downturn4. **[Company-Specific Risk]**: [Detail]
---
## Disclaimer
This valuation model is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. The intrinsic value estimate is based on assumptions that may not reflect reality.

# DCF Valuation Model: [Company Name]
**Valuation Date**: [Date]**Analyst**: AI-Generated**Model Type**: [Standard/Two-Stage/Three-Stage]
---
## Executive Summary
| Metric | Value ||--------|-------|| **Intrinsic Value per Share** | $XX.XX || **Current Market Price** | $XX.XX || **Upside/Downside** | +/-XX% || **Implied Recommendation** | [Undervalued/Fair/Overvalued] |
---
## Key Assumptions
### Revenue Projections| Year | Revenue ($M) | Growth % ||------|-------------|----------|| Base (Current) | X,XXX | - || Year 1 | X,XXX | XX% || Year 2 | X,XXX | XX% || Year 3 | X,XXX | XX% || Year 4 | X,XXX | XX% || Year 5 | X,XXX | XX% |
### Margin Assumptions| Metric | Year 1 | Year 5 | Rationale ||--------|--------|--------|-----------|| EBITDA Margin | XX% | XX% | [Reason] || Capex/Revenue | XX% | XX% | [Reason] || D&A/Revenue | XX% | XX% | [Reason] |
### WACC Calculation| Component | Value | Source/Assumption ||-----------|-------|-------------------|| Risk-free Rate | X.X% | 10-Year Treasury || Beta | X.XX | Bloomberg/Calculated || Equity Risk Premium | X.X% | Historical average || Cost of Equity | XX.X% | CAPM || Cost of Debt | X.X% | Credit spread || Tax Rate | XX% | Effective rate || Debt/Total Capital | XX% | Current structure || **WACC** | **X.X%** | |
### Terminal Value| Method | Value ($M) | As % of EV ||--------|-----------|------------|| Gordon Growth (g=X%) | X,XXX | XX% || Exit Multiple (Xx EBITDA) | X,XXX | XX% || **Selected** | **X,XXX** | **XX%** |
---
## Free Cash Flow Projections
| ($M) | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Terminal ||------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|----------|| Revenue | | | | | | || EBITDA | | | | | | || (-) D&A | | | | | | || EBIT | | | | | | || (-) Taxes | | | | | | || NOPAT | | | | | | || (+) D&A | | | | | | || (-) Capex | | | | | | || (-) ΔNWC | | | | | | || **UFCF** | | | | | | |
---
## Valuation Summary
| Component | Value ($M) ||-----------|-----------|| PV of Projected FCFs | X,XXX || PV of Terminal Value | X,XXX || **Enterprise Value** | **X,XXX** || (-) Net Debt | (X,XXX) || (+) Cash | X,XXX || **Equity Value** | **X,XXX** || Shares Outstanding | XXX M || **Value per Share** | **$XX.XX** |
---
## Sensitivity Analysis
### WACC vs Terminal Growth Rate
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% ||--------------|------|------|------|------|| 8.0% | $XX | $XX | $XX | $XX || 8.5% | $XX | $XX | $XX | $XX || 9.0% | $XX | $XX | **$XX** | $XX || 9.5% | $XX | $XX | $XX | $XX || 10.0% | $XX | $XX | $XX | $XX |
### Key Drivers Impact
| Assumption Change | Impact on Value ||-------------------|-----------------|| WACC +1% | -XX% || Terminal Growth +0.5% | +XX% || Revenue CAGR +2% | +XX% || EBITDA Margin +2% | +XX% |
---
## Risks to Valuation
1. **Model Risk**: DCF highly sensitive to WACC and terminal growth assumptions2. **Execution Risk**: Projected growth may not materialize3. **Market Risk**: Multiple compression in downturn4. **[Company-Specific Risk]**: [Detail]
---
## Disclaimer
This valuation model is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. The intrinsic value estimate is based on assumptions that may not reflect reality.

Example

User Request

Build a DCF model for a SaaS company with:- Current revenue: $500M- Revenue growth: 25% declining to 15% over 5 years- EBITDA margin: 20% improving to 30%- Current stock price: $45- Shares outstanding: 100M

Build a DCF model for a SaaS company with:- Current revenue: $500M- Revenue growth: 25% declining to 15% over 5 years- EBITDA margin: 20% improving to 30%- Current stock price: $45- Shares outstanding: 100M

My Response

[Complete DCF model with all calculations...]

Tips for Better Results

Provide historical data for more accurate projections
Be explicit about growth assumptions rather than using defaults
Specify the industry for appropriate comparables
Request sensitivity analysis to understand valuation range
Cross-check with multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) for sanity check

Limitations

Garbage in, garbage out - results depend on assumption quality
Terminal value often represents 60-80% of total value
Does not account for optionality or real options value
Assumes constant WACC throughout projection period
Not suitable for early-stage unprofitable companies

Built by the Claude Office Skills community. Contributions welcome!

來源與署名

來源：claude-office-skills/skills位於dcf-valuation提交9c4c7d5

授權條款： MIT

內容歸原作者所有。SourceWeft 從公開儲存庫中收錄這些內容。

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Dcf Valuation

DCF Valuation Skill

Overview

How to Use Me

Step 1: Provide Financial Data

Step 2: Set Assumptions

Step 3: Choose Model Type

DCF Model Framework

Step 1: Project Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Step 2: Calculate WACC

CAPM Formula for Cost of Equity

Step 3: Calculate Terminal Value

Method A: Gordon Growth Model

Method B: Exit Multiple

Step 4: Discount to Present Value

Output Format

Example

User Request

My Response

Tips for Better Results

Limitations

來源與署名

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